Newsletter – 30th May 2017

Morning Bulletin

Over The Long Weekend

  • UK ELECTIONS: Two of the three Polls released over the weekend still have Tories with a narrow lead, albeit slightly less so than last week:
    • YouGov/Times: Tories lead up to 7pts, from the 5 pts in Friday’s poll.
    • Telegraph/ORB: Tories 44% v Labour 38%.
    • ICM/The Sun: Tories 46% v Labour 32%.
  • Both PM Theresa May and Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn were of course quizzed by voters and grilled by Jeremy Paxman live on Sky/Channel 4 yesterday evening. Voters wouldn’t have gleaned anything greatly new during the 90 minute program, with both leaders emerging largely unscathed, and that was reflected in a fairly muted reaction from Sterling in FX space.
  • South African President Jacob Zuma was backed by his ANC party over the weekend following official complaints and calls for him to stand down from key allies including the SACP and the trade union Cosatu. The complaints stemmed from Zuma’s controversial decision to sack his previous Finance Minister Gordhan and the reshuffling of his cabinet. The Rand rallied as a result of the ANC’s decision.
  • ECB President Mario Draghi shocked markets somewhat during a speech yesterday by suggesting major monetary stimulus was still required for domestic price pressures to strengthen. Many have been expecting the ECB to potentially start dropping stimulus measures in their upcoming June meeting with Eurozone growth at its best for a decade, however this statement may suggest otherwise as Mr Draghi still see’s wage growth and underlying weak inflation as real issues. The Euro was put on the back-foot following his speech, falling back from recent highs against the US Dollar and Sterling.
  • US Fed Member Bullard suggested that current US interest rates are close to an appropriate level and that the current data doesn’t point to above-trend growth. Mr Bullard also added that President Trump’s government may not be able to deliver on the high hopes currently reflected in equity valuations.
  • In contrast to Mr Bullard, Fed Member Williams reiterated his view that there should be three rate hikes this year, as the US economy is as close to it’s two goals of maximum employment and price stability as it’s ever been.
Today
  • Raft of European data already released this morning, so we have nothing now due until 1.30pm.
  • Key this afternoon will be the US Consumer Confidence reading at 3pm.
  • Worth noting today is the ‘Dragon Boat Festival’ holiday in China, HK and Taiwan.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1528 +0.17
GBP/USD 1.2839 -0.01
EUR/USD 1.1136 -0.23
AUD/USD 0.7439 +0.02

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
13.30 CAD Current Account -11.4Bn -10.7Bn
13.30 CAD RMPI m/m 3.8% -1.6%
13.30 USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% -0.1%
13.30 USD Personal Spending m/m 0.4% 0.0%
15.00 USD CB Consumer Confidence 120.1 120.3
22.00 NZD RBNZ Financial Stability Report