Newsletter – 30th July 2018

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • Trading was fairly muted Friday morning with no significant data set for release. In fact US GDP was the only high impact number due for release in the afternoon.
  • The United States economy grew at its fastest pace in nearly four years according to figures released Friday afternoon. The second quarter print, which is reported in an annualised format showed the economy had grown by 4.1%. President Trump was naturally quick to claim credit, stating it was proof his policies, including the massive tax cuts, were working. Increases in consumer spending and exports were notable factors in the impressive growth.
  • Despite the impressive growth the US Dollar was largely unmoved in FX space as the GDP figure was largely in-line with expectations.
  • US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 97.9 (97.1 Exp)
Over The Weekend

  • US President Donald Trump has said he would be prepared to allow the Federal Government to shut down if Democrats don’t agree to the funding of his border wall and back his changes to immigration laws. The Wall was of course one of Trump’s main campaign pledges, and arguably the most controversial.
  • Following Friday’s impressive GDP figure, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said the US is on track to produce four to five years of 3% growth.
  • According to the White House, the US, Canada and Mexico are now making ‘absolutely amazing’ progress towards renegotiating the NAFTA agreement.
  • Support for German Chancellor Merkel’s Conservative party has fallen to a 12-year low according to a German poll released Sunday.
  • Swiss KOF Economic Barometer 101.1 (101.6 Exp)
  • Spanish Flash CPI y/y 2.2% (2.3% Exp)
  • Japan Retail Sales y/y 1.8% (1.7% Exp)
Today
  • Economic data is incredibly thin on the ground today.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1252 +0.16
GBP/USD 1.3130 +0.18
EUR/USD 1.1669 +0.13
AUD/USD 0.7401 +0.00

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 5.3Bn 5.3Bn
09.30 GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 0.6% 0.4%
TBC EUR German Prelim CPI m/m 0.4% 0.1%
15.00 USD Pending Home Sales m/m 0.4% -0.5%