Newsletter – 30th January 2019

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • A proposal put forward by Conservative MP Sir Graham Brady, in which Theresa May will seek “alternative arrangements” to replace the Irish backstop in the Brexit withdrawal agreement was backed by MPs yesterday. The proposal had the support of the government and won by 16 votes.
  • PM May had been urging MPs to vote in favour of the Brady’s proposal to give her a mandate to return to Brussels to secure a ‘legally binding change’.
  • MPs voted 317 to 301 in favour of replacing the backstop.
  • MPs had voted on a string of proposals on Tuesday;
    • The Cooper amendment to shift control of Brexit to parliament and delay Brexit if needed if no deal was struck by February 26 was rejected.
    • The Grieve amendment to allow MPs to debate Brexit proposals and give them ‘indicative votes’ to MPs was rejected.
    • Labour’s amendment to consider options to prevent no-deal Brexit including a permanent customs union and second referendum was rejected.
    • Spelman non-binding amendment that no-deal Brexit would be unacceptable  was passed.
    • Blackford amendment to delay Brexit, rule out no-deal and not take Scotland out of EU was rejected.
  • GBP/EUR opened at 1.1511, traded a low of 1.1422 and closed at 1.1430 representing a 0.76% decrease on Tuesday.
  • GBP/USD opened at 1.3157, traded a low of 1.3056 and closed at 1.3063 representing a fall of 0.71%.
  • The EU have said they will not change the legal text agreed the UK PM. President Donald Tusk said “the backstop is part of the withdrawal agreement , and the withdrawal agreement is not up for renegotiation”.
  • French President Emmanuel Macron also said the agreements was “not renegotiable” whilst Irish foreign minister Simon Coveney said the backstop arrangement remained necessary.
  • US CB consumer confidence came in weaker than expected at 120.2 vs 125.0.
Overnight
  • Australian CPI q/q came in rouhgly as expected at 0.5% vs 0.4% and trimmed mean CPI q/q came in at 0.4% vs 0.4% expected.
  • GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/JPY are currently trading at 1.8214, 1.9168 and 143.37.
Today
  • UK net lending to individuals came in slightly high than expected at 4.8B vs 4.3B.
  • At 1.15pm we expect to see ADP non-farm employment change come in at 180K.
  • This is followed by quiet afternoon before the US Fed funds rate and FOMC statement is announced at 7pm.
  • The FOMC press conference will follow half an hour later.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1471 +0.36
GBP/USD 1.3117 +0.41
EUR/USD 1.1433 +0.02
AUD/USD 0.7201 +0.66

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
13:15 USD ADP non-farm employment change 180K 271K
19:00 USD FOMC statement
19:00 USD Federal funds rate <2.50% <2.50%
19:30 USD FOMC press conference