Newsletter – 30th August 2019

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Sterling currency pairs proved surprisingly resilient yesterday given the additional political turmoil the UK now finds itself in following Boris Johnsons’ decision to suspend Parliament.
  • Following the sell-off witnessed on Wednesday, Sterling rates stabilised yesterday, eventually closing the day with minimal ground lost to the likes of the Euro, US Dollar and Aussie Dollar, whilst actually making solid gains against the Kiwi Dollar and Swiss Franc.
  • GBP/EUR in fact closed the day unchanged at 1.1022.
  • GBP/USD fell only -0.12% by the close, trading at 1.2191.
  • Perhaps investors and markets are content to await the next move of Parliamentarians, with suggestions that MP’s from all sides of the commons, including Conservatives, could try and force legislation through next week to prevent a no-deal exit from the EU.
  • Inflation in the German economy dipped further than expected during August with the m/m CPI reading at -0.2%; A decline in prices of -0.1% had been forecast.
  • Canada Current Account -6.4Bn (-9.9Bn Exp).
  • US Prelim GDP q/q 2.0% as expected.
Overnight

  • UK Brexit negotiators are due ‘to step up the tempo’ with their European counterparts with the clock ticking down towards the 31st October. As of next week the two sides are scheduled to meet twice a week in the run up to the crucial EU summit on the 17th and 18th October.
  • Japan Unemployment Rate 2.2% (2.3% Exp)
  • Japan Retail Sales y/y -2.0% (-0.6% Exp)
  • Japan Prelim Industrial Production m/m 1.3% (0.3% Exp)
  • UK GfK Consumer Confidence -14 (-11 Exp) – Joint weakest reading since Mid-2013
  • German Retail Sales m/m -2.2% (-1.3% Exp)
Today
  • Eurozone CPI data headlines this morning at 10am with Inflation expected to remain heavily subdued at 1.0%.
  • This afternoon Canadian GDP and US Personal Spending are in focus at 1.30pm.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1028 +0.11
GBP/USD 1.2172 -0.06
EUR/USD 1.1038 -0.16
AUD/USD 0.6717 -0.15

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 0.2% 0.1%
09.30 GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 4.7Bn 4.8Bn
10.00 EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.0% 1.0%
10.00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate 7.5% 7.5%
13.30 CAD GDP m/m 0.1% 0.2%
13.30 USD Personal Spending m/m 0.5% 0.3%
14.45 USD Chicago PMI 48.1 44.4
15.00 USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 92.5 92.1