Newsletter – 30 January 2017

Morning Bulletin


  • The focus of Friday’s trading was the raft of US economic data due for release in the afternoon, which ultimately disappointed. Headlining was the GDP print for the last quarter of 2016; however it fell surprisingly short of expectations at 1.9% (2.1% Exp). Other US releases Friday afternoon included:
    • Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.5% as expected.
    • Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 98.5 (98.2 Exp).
  • The US Dollar index did decline in the immediate aftermath of the GDP print; however the Dollar rallied to close the day roughly where it had started following that slightly better than expected consumer confidence number.
  • The Euro performed solidly Friday, underpinned by M3 Money Supply data released in the morning. The year on year number was up 5.0% against an expected 4.9%; that was close to a year’s high in Eurozone lending.
  • UK PM Theresa May’s trip to Washington appeared to be a success, with President Trump saying that the US had renewed its bond with the UK following her visit. Further adding he looked forward to working closely to strengthen ties across economic and foreign affairs.

Over The Weekend

  • Over the weekend there was commentary from a number of ECB members regarding President Trump’s policies on trade. Ignazio Visco warned that the President’s approach could harm world growth, whilst similarly Klaas Knot stated US policy would impact the global economy and therefore the ECB should not be looking to end QE all at once.
  • New Zealand Trade Balance -41M (-95M Exp)
  • Spanish Flash GDP q/q 0.7% as expected.


  • Nothing in the way of high impact data today. The only releases of note come after 1.30pm with a raft of US data including Personal Spending and Pending Home Sales.
  • Chinese Bank Holiday continues.


Current at time of distribution

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1696 -0.26
GBP/USD 1.2511 -0.25
EUR/USD 1.0696 +0.06
AUD/USD 0.7546 +0.04


Current at time of distribution
Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR ECB’s Nowotny Speaks
10.00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence 107.8 107.8
13.30 USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.0%
13.30 USD Personal Spending m/m 0.4% 0.2%
15.00 USD Pending Home Sales 1.6% -2.5%
13.30 USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.5% 0.6%