Newsletter – 2nd October 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • The UK’s Manufacturing sector saw growth improve during September according to data released yesterday morning. The PMI print of 53.8 was much better than the 52.6 expected, with both output and new orders increasing at a faster rate during September.
  • The Eurozone’s Manufacturing PMI reading showed the bloc had expanded at it’s slowest pace in 2 years. However the reading of 53.2 still comfortably represents industry expansion and that is now the 63 consecutive month of expansion in Eurozone manufacturing.
  • UK Net Lending to Individuals m/m 4.0Bn (4.8Bn Exp).
  • Eurozone Unemployment Rate 8.1% as expected.
  • Speaking yesterday morning UK Brexit Sec Dominic Raab once again warned the EU that trying to force the UK into accepting a deal that would undermine the unity of the country could well leave the UK with no choice other than to walk away with no deal.
  • Sterling received a boost in FX space early yesterday afternoon following reports that UK PM Theresa May was preparing to propose a compromise on the Irish Border issue in a bid to open the door to a Brexit deal.
  • The Pound rallied to a day’s high of 1.1281 against the Euro and managed to hold a large part of those gains into the close of trading.
  • The Pound also rallied to a high of 1.3115 against the US Dollar, however those gains were proved to be short lived as the rate was back down around 1.3030-1.3040 just hours later.
  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI 59.8 (60.1 Exp).
  • Speaking ahead of IMF and World Bank annual meetings next week, IMF Chief Christine Lagarde warned that continuing global trade conflicts were starting to dim the outlook for global growth and called on those countries to resolve their differences. At present the IMF is forecasting global growth of 3.9% in 2018 and 2019.
Overnight

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia left their key interest rate on hold at 1.50% as expected overnight. The RBA looks unlikely to hike rates until at least the middle of 2019 as the continue to have concerns around household debt levels, sluggish wage growth and cooling house prices.
  • The EU’s executive head, Jean-Claude Juncker has warned Italy not to go ahead with their proposed 2019 budget which he said was ‘too lax’. Juncker added Italy could end up following Greece into a crisis which ultimately could threaten the existence of the Euro.
  • Never one for modesty, US President Donald Trump has hailed the revised NAFTA as the biggest and the best ever trade deal in the world, adding the new pact, dubbed USMCA, would see cash and jobs pouring into the United States.
Today
  • Very little in the way of economic data releases today.
  • UK Construction PMI probably being the only print of note, due at 9.30am.
  • US Fed Chair Powell will be speaking later this afternoon.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1262 0.00
GBP/USD 1.2999 -0.30
EUR/USD 1.1539 -0.33
AUD/USD 0.7193 -0.36

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP Construction PMI 52.8 52.9
15.00 USD Fed Member Quarles Speaks
TBC NZD GDT Price Index -1.3
17.45 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks