Newsletter – 2nd October 2017

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • GBP/EUR and GBP/USD both came off on Friday as we saw weaker than expected current account data from the UK.
  • Economists has predicted a current account deficit of 15.8B but we actually saw a figure of 23.2B released. Flash GDP q/q came in as expected at 0.3% and net lending to individuals m/m beat expectations by coming in at 5.6B vs 5.0B expected.
  • GBP/USD opened at 1.3438 before coming off to close at 1.3395 whereas GBP/EUR opened at 1.1401 and traded a low of 1.1306 before closing at 1.1334.
  • In the afternoon, Canadian GDP m/m missed expectations slightly coming in at 0.0% vs 0.1% expected, US personal spending m/m came as expected at 0.1% and Chicago PMI beat estimates coming in at 65.2 vs 58.6.
  • Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said inflation tailwinds are likely to persist for a while yet.
Over the weekend
  • Despite a spokesperson for the Spanish government stating the Catalonian independence vote will not go ahead on Friday, those in Catalonia did take to the polls and it did lead to unsavoury scenes with footage of Spanish police using force on voters.
  • The referendum, which the Spanish government say is illegal, had a turnout of 42.3% and Catalan officials saying that 90% of those who had voted backed independence.
  • Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont says the Spanish region had won the right to statehood  (BBC News).
  • GBP/EUR hasn’t reacted particularly to the vote as the market has only moved up by 13 point since the open. EUR/USD has come off from 1.1788 to currently trade at 1.1739.
Today
  • This morning we saw Spanish manufacturing PMI come in at 54.3 vs 53.2 expected.
  • At 9.30am we expected to UK manufacturing PMI to come in at 56.3 and US ISM manufacturing PMI to coming at 57.9 at 3pm.
  • This evening, FOMC member Kaplan will be speaking in El Paso at 7pm.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1350 -0.46
GBP/USD 1.3324 -0.53
EUR/USD 1.1735 -0.65
AUD/USD 0.7800 -0.35

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI 56.3 56.9
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing 57.9 58.8
19:00 USD FOMC Kaplan Speaks