Newsletter – 2nd May 2018

Morning Bulletin


  • GBP/USD fell by 1% yesterday taken its record to 10 days of losses against the USD in the previous 11 trading days.
  • Cable opened at 1.3755 but crashed past the 1.37 level to close at 1.3613.
  • An already struggling pound was not helped by UK manufacturing PMI missing market estimates coming in at 53.9 vs 54.8 expected.
  • Economic indicators have softened significantly in the latter part of April and the market is now far less sure of a rate increase in May and sterling has tumbled as the markets have priced this in.
  • There was no data from Europe yesterday as a Bank Holiday was observed across the majority of the EU countries.
  • GBP/EUR opened at 1.1394 and fell to close at 1.1350.
  • UK net lending to individuals m/m missed expectations coming in at 4.2B vs 4.9B.
  • In the afternoon Canadian GDP m/m came in better than expected at 0.4% vs 0.3%.
  • ISM manufacturing PMI from the US came in at 57.3 vs 58.4 expected.
  • New Zealand employment change q/q beat expectations at 0.6% vs 0.5% and the unemployment rate came came in as expected at 4.4%.
  • GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/JPY are all down with current rates of 1.8124, 1.9406 and 149.73, respectively.
  • This morning we have construction PMI from the UK scheduled for release at 9.30am and is is followed by preliminary flash GDP q/q from the Eurozone at 10am.
  • This afternoon we look to the US for ADP non-farm employment change at 1.15pm and this evening we have the the Fed’s rate decision and FOMC statement.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1340 -0.04
GBP/USD 1.3636 +0.17
EUR/USD 1.2015 +0.20
AUD/USD 0.7522 +0.43


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09:30 GBP Construction PMI 50.5 47.0
10:00 EUR Prelim Flash GDP q/q 0.4% 0.6%
13:15 USD ADP Non-farm Employment Change 200K 241K
19:00 USD FOMC Statement
19:00 USD Federal Funds Rate <1.75% <1.75%