Newsletter – 2nd May 2017

Morning Bulletin


  • The Sterling rally continued firmly into the end of last week’s trading with the Pound hitting a 7 month high of 1.2965 against the US Dollar, whilst against the Euro it soared to 1.1896.
  • These gains came despite a disappointing UK GDP print Friday morning. Expecting Q1 growth of 0.4%, the actual figure came in at 0.3% and is perhaps a sign that the post-referendum slump in sterling is finally starting to bite with inflation soaring.
  • There was a similar picture into Friday afternoon as Canadian and US GDP prints both missed expectations. The Canadian month on month figure came in flat at 0.0%(0.1% Exp) whilst the US print of 0.7% fell comfortably below the forecasted 1.3% q/q figure.


Over The Long Weekend

  • Whilst it was a bank holiday for large parts of the world yesterday, there were still some key data releases out of the United States and they disappointed slightly:
    • ISM Manufacturing PMI 54.8 (56.6 Exp)
    • Personal Spending m/m 0.0% (0.2% Exp)
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia opted to keep interest rates on hold at 1.50% overnight as expected. RBA Governor Lowe suggested he expects a gradual increase in inflation going forward, but the RBA statement made no mention of potential rate hikes or cuts going forward.
  • Chinese Manufacturing PMI 51.2 (51.7 Exp)
  • Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI 50.3 (51.4 Exp)
  • FRENCH ELECTIONS: Latest Daily IFOP Poll: Macron 59% (-1) v Le Pen 41% (+1).
  • UK ELECTIONS: Latest ICM Poll suggests Tories hold 19-point lead over the Labour party.
  • UK PM May has dismissed rumours of a disagreement with European Commissioner Juncker as nothing more than Brussels gossip, suggesting the meeting between the two went well.

  • A very quiet day in prospect to ease us back in following the bank holiday weekend.
  • Only real key data comes from the UK with Manufacturing PMI due at 9.30am.
  • The New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index is also due to be released at some stage this afternoon. Another slump in this figure could hit the already struggling Kiwi Dollar.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1793 -0.25
GBP/USD 1.2872 -0.09
EUR/USD 1.0910 +0.11
AUD/USD 0.7526 +0.03


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI 56.8 56.8
09.00 EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 11.6% 11.5%
09.30 GBP Manufacturing PMI 54.0 54.2
10.00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate 9.4% 9.5%
TBC NZD GDT Price Index 3.1%