Newsletter – 2nd June 2017

Morning bulletin

Yesterday

  • The Sterling rollercoaster ride continued yesterday, with the Pound bouncing around off the back of economic data but more so political factors, most notably election polls. This is of course likely to remain the case in the lead up to the 8th June.
  • A solid UK Manufacturing PMI print kicked off trading yesterday morning. The reading of 56.7 was a touch better than the expected 56.5, but was down from the 3 year high of 57.3 recorded in April.
  • UK ELECTIONS: Yesterday’s polls:
    • YouGov/Times – Tories 42% vs Labour 39%
    • Panelbase – Tories 44% (prev 48%) vs Labour 36% (prev 33%)
  • There was a big jump in US ADP employment figures yesterday afternoon, with an estimated 253,000 more people employed in May (excluding farming industry), bettering the expected 181,000. This gave the US Dollar some real impetus for the afternoon’s trading session.
  • In contrast to the job creation figure, there was a slight increase in US Unemployment claims with 248,000 individuals claimning last week, against the expected 239,000.
  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI 54.9 (54.7 Exp).
  • Speaking yesterday afternoon US Fed member Powell suggested that if the US economy continues to perform as he expects, then it would be appropriate to continue gradually raising interest rates.
Overnight

  • Well the big story overnight was of course President Trump’s decision to withdraw the United States from the Paris climate accord. It should come as no massive surprise really as this was one of Trump’s pledges in his election campaign, but nonetheless it has been met with outrage and condemnation across the globe.
  • The US Dollar was largely unmoved in FX space following Trump’s decision. The President will however seek to re-enter the accord at some stage provided better terms for the US can be negotiated.
  • Germany, France and Italy have already issued a joint statement saying the agreement (Paris Climate accord) cannot be renegotiated.
  • Spanish Unemployment Claims -111.9K (-110.2K Exp).
  • UK ELECTIONS: ‘Britain Elects UK Election Nowcast Poll Aggregator’: Tories 362 Seats (+32); Labour 206 (-26); Lib Dem 11 (+3).
Today
  • UK Construction PMI is our key print this morning at 9.30am with a reading of 52.7 expected.
  • This afternoon we have a raft of high impact US data with Non-Farm employment Change arguably headlining. All are set for release at 1.30pm.
  • Worth noting today is an Italian Bank Holiday.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1462 -0.24
GBP/USD 1.2872 -0.07
EUR/USD 1.1223 +0.12
AUD/USD 0.7378 +0.06

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP Construction PMI 52.7 53.1
13.30 CAD Trade Balance 0.0Bn -0.1Bn
13.30 USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.4%
13.30 USD Non-Farm Employment Change 181K 211K
13.30 USD Unemployment Rate 4.4% 4.4%
13.30 USD Trade Balance -45.5Bn -43.7Bn