Newsletter – 2nd August 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • UK Manufacturing PMI fell to a three month low in July, with a reading of 54.0. That fall is only marginal it must be said however the survey also revealed manufacturers were their most downbeat in nearly two years. Despite a rise in demands for Exports, new orders in the domestic market were at their weakest since June 2017.
  • Despite the slightly disappointing data the Pound enjoyed a solid day’s trading in FX space, making limited gains against most of it’s major currency counterparts. The US Dollar was the one noticeable exception.
  • Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI 55.1 as expected.
  • US companies created some 219,000 new jobs during July according to the ADP survey. Economists had forecast a rise of 186,000.
  • US Manufacturing PMI dropped to 58.1 in July, that was down from 60.2 in June. The reading fell as a gauge of new orders fell to its lowest level in just over a year.
  • The Reserve Bank of India raised interest rates by 25bps yesterday to 6.50%. That was the second consecutive meeting in which they have hiked rates.
Overnight

  • The US Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged overnight at 1.75% to 2.0% as widely expected. The Fed also reiterated their plans to continue a gradual raising of interest rates in order to keep the economy growing at a healthy pace. In one slight upgrade to the language used, the Fed noted that economic growth was ‘strong’ where previously it was ‘solid’.
  • The Dollar was largely unchanged following the Fed’s decision.
  • Australia Trade Balance 1.87Bn (0.91Bn Exp)
  • Spanish Unemployment Change -27.1K (-87.6K Exp)
  • Swiss Retail Sales y/y 0.3% (0.0% Exp)
  • Swiss Manufacturing PMI 61.9 (60.8 Exp)
Today
  • Arguably the main event of the week, the Bank of England’s monetary policy meeting will be the focus of trading today. The BOE are widely expected to raise interest rates for just the second time since the financial crisis, with a 0.25% rise expected.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1245 -0.09
GBP/USD 1.3080 -0.35
EUR/USD 1.1630 -0.24
AUD/USD 0.7375 -0.39

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP Construction PMI 52.8 53.1
10.00 EUR PPI m/m 0.3% 0.8%
12.00 GBP BOE Inflation Report
12.00 GBP BOE Official Bank Rate 0.75% 0.50%
12.00 GBP BOE Bank Rate Votes 7-0-2 3-0-6
12.00 GBP BOE Monetary Policy Summary
12.30 GBP BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks
13.30 USD Unemployment Claims 220K 217K
15.00 USD Factory Orders m/m 0.7% 0.4%