Newsletter – 29th October 2018

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • Speaking Friday morning, EU economic commissioner Moscovici said that the Italian governments’ deviation from EU rules was unprecedented but that constructive talks were being held regarding the situation. He added the EU does have other options if Italy doesn’t resubmit their budget and that the EU would look at other ways to reduce Italy’s debt.
  • US GDP grew at an annualised pace of 3.5% during the third quarter of 2018, that was a slight beat on expectations of 3.4% but was down on the 4.2% expansion recorded in the second quarter.
  • Consumer sentiment in the US remains near historical highs albeit the reading slipped a fraction to 98.6 in October according to the University of Michigan’s monthly survey.
  • The US Dollar was one of Friday’s worst performers. Despite a strong morning, the Dollar fell sharply in the afternoon losing all of the morning’s gains and then some.
Overnight

  • Japan Retail Sales y/y 2.1% as expected
  • According to Reuters, UK Chancellor Hammond will use his annual budget speech later today to unify his divided party behind PM Theresa May on Brexit. The Chancellor, who has always called for closer ties to Europe, will urge Tory rebels to get behind the Government’s push for a Brexit deal or risk jeopardising a long-awaited easing of austerity.
  • Speaking to Sky News, Chancellor Hammond said ‘if we don’t get a deal (On Brexit) we would need to take a different approach to the future of Britain’s economy’.
  • Credit ratings agency S&P have affirmed Italy as BBB, but downgraded the outlook to negative from stable.
Today
  • Quiet on the data front today with no key prints set for release.
  • UK Chancellor Philip Hammond will be presenting the budget at 3.30pm.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1267 +0.20
GBP/USD 1.2815 -0.09
EUR/USD 1.1370 -0.28
AUD/USD 0.7089 +0.05

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
10.30 GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 4.1Bn 4.0Bn
10.30 GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 0.3% 0.2%
12.00 GBP CBI Realised Sales 27 23
13.30 USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.0%
13.30 USD Personal Spending m/m 0.4% 0.3%
13.30 USD Personal Income m/m 0.4% 0.3%