Newsletter – 29th November 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • The Government released its analysis on the potential effects on the UK economy of Brexit yesterday.
    • Official figures say that the economy could be up to 3.9% smaller under PM May’s plan compared with staying in the EU.
    • In the event of a no-deal the analysis suggests that the economy could be 9.3% smaller after 15 years compared with remaining in the EU.
    • The treasury did not put a monetary value on the potential impact but experts have said the 3.9% of GDP would equate to about £100bn a year by 2030.
    • The economy will expand under all scenarios but all scenarios are economically inferior to staying in the EU.
    • Philip Hammond commented that even though Brexit will cause the UK economy to be worse off, there were political benefits to leaving the EU.
  • The Bank of England released analysis last night that warned a no-deal Brexit would cause the economy to shrink by 8%, house prices would fall by a third, sterling would fall to parity with the US dollar and interest rates would soar to combat inflation.
  • Bank of England governor Mark Carney warned that a disorderly Brexit could be worse for the UK than the global financial crisis. 
    • Carney said that he is not trying to scare anyone nor is the analysis part a political play to get support for May’s deal.
    • He said the BoE has a responsibility to get the country ready for whatever the outcome of Brexit is.
    • He added that a transition period is advisable as Britain is not yet ready.
    • Carney came under criticism for yesterday’s comments with leading Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg calling the governor ‘a failed second tier politician’. MP James Duddridge tweeted that Carney has ‘doubled down on Project Hysteria’ and that the timing is ‘highly political’.
  • US preliminary GDP q/q came in weaker than expected at 3.5% vs 3.6% yesterday.
  • President Trump criticised China’s ‘egregious’ tariffs on US cars ahead of G20.
  • Fed’s Powell says interest rates are near neutral.
Overnight
  • Australian private capital expenditure q/q came in weaker than expected at -0.5% vs 1.1%.
  • GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/JPY are trading at 1.7448, 1.8591 and 144.68.
Today
  • We are expecting German preliminary CPI m/m today.
  • UK data – net lending to individuals m/m is due at 9.30am.
  • We have current account data from Canada and personal spending m/m from the US at 1.30pm.
  • There will also be more fall out from yesterdays analysis from the Government and Bank of England.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1231 -0.46
GBP/USD 1.2771 -0.41
EUR/USD 1.1370 +0.04
AUD/USD 0.7317 +0.17

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09:30 GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 4.5B 4.7B
13:30 CAD Current Account -11.9B -15.9B
13:30 USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.2% 0.2%
13:30 USD Personal Spending m/m 0.4% 0.4%
19:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes