Newsletter – 29th May 2019

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Very little in the way of high impact data released yesterday.
  • Eurozone M3 Money Supply y/y 4.7% (4.4% Exp)
  • Eurozone Private Loans y/y 3.4% (3.3% Exp)
  • A spokesperson for UK PM Theresa May stated yesterday that No 10 is continuing to prepare responsibly for a no-deal scenario. A no-deal withdrawal remains the default position according to the legal text.
  • UK High Street Lending 43.0K (39.3K Exp)
  • Italy’s Deputy PM Matteo Salvini revealed yesterday that Italy could be hit by a €3Bn fine for accumulating debt and deficits that break EU rules.
  • With the European Commission set to review Italy’s finances again on the 5th June, EC Vice President Dombrovskis said that he could not confirm whether Italy would indeed be slapped with the €3Bn fine.
  • Despite the ongoing trade dispute between the United States and China, US consumers remain incredibly optimistic according to the latest CB Consumer Confidence release. The reading of 134.1 was much better than the 130.1 expected and jumped above last month’s reading of 129.2. The reading is ultimately a gauge of consumers willingness to continue spending.
Overnight

  • Figures from the British Retail Consortium revealed shop prices rose +0.8% year-on-year in May. That was up from +0.4% in April and represented the second-highest rise in 6 years. According to the BRC, UK retailers have simply been unable to continue absorbing the cost of factors such as currency depreciation, stockpiling, the increasing minimum wage and apprenticeship levy.
  • The UK’s speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, has insisted that MP’s will get a say on whether the UK leaves the European Union without a deal on the 31st October. The speaker has rubbished claims that the default position of the House would be to leave with no-deal should no other deal be reached by the October deadline, despite the legal text.
  • Following Labour’s trouncing in the European elections, reports are circulating that Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn is now poised to back a people’s vote on Brexit.
  • As has been the official stance from Brussels, Jean-Claude Juncker reiterated that the next Conservative Leader and PM of the UK will not be able to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement.
  • French Prelim CPI m/m 0.2% (0.3% Exp)
  • French Prelim GDP q/q 0.3% as expected
Today
  • No data set for release for the remainder of this morning.
  • The Bank of Canada’s monetary policy meeting and rate decision will be in focus this afternoon.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1334 -0.02
GBP/USD 1.2641 -0.09
EUR/USD 1.1153 -0.06
AUD/USD 0.6915 -0.12

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
15.00 CAD BOC Overnight Rate 1.75% 1.75%
15.00 CAD BOC Rate Statement
15.00 USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 6 3