Newsletter – 29th May 2019

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • With the exception of the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy meeting there was very little in the way of data to digest yesterday and that was reflected in relatively calm trading in FX space.
  • There were minimal moves in FX space, with the US Dollar making marginal gains against most of its major currency counterparts.
  • As expected the Bank of Canada held interest rates at 1.75%, however the BOC’s ‘neutral’ stance did initially see the Canadian Dollar sold off aggressively in FX markets before pairing those losses shortly after. The BOC said there was increasing evidence that the slowdown in the economy was temporary but that growth has accelerated in the second quarter.
  • Whilst gearing up to campaign to be the next Tory Leader and Prime Minister of the UK, Boris Johnson will also now have to appear in court to answer to allegations of lying to the public about Brexit (Big red bus) during the referendum. The private summons, funded by members of the public, alleges Johnson committed three offences of misconduct in a public office.
  • In a speech from the Department of Justice yesterday, Robert Mueller broke his two-year silence to quash President Trump’s claim that the Russia collusion report proved his innocence. In a damning closing verdict, Mueller said ‘if we had confidence Trump didn’t commit a crime we’d have said’.
Overnight

  • Markets are currently expecting the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice by January 2020, pricing in a 63% chance of a cut in September and a 62% chance of a further cut in January.
  • Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn says his party will back a referendum on any Brexit Deal and would do whatever is necessary to avoid a disastrous no-deal outcome.
  • Speaking this morning Bank of England Member Dave Ramsden said that despite the collective judgement of his colleagues at the BOE, he is still slightly gloomier on the UK’s growth outlook as productivity lags and investment risk being weaker than currently forecast.
  • Australia Building Approvals m/m -4.7% (+0.1% Exp)
  • Australia Private Capital Expenditure q/q -1.7% (+0.5% Exp)
  • Spanish Flash CPI y/y 0.8% (1.2% Exp)
Today
  • Very heavy on the US data this afternoon with GDP headlining at 1.30pm.
  • Please note it is a French, German and Swiss Bank Holiday today (Ascension Day).

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1339 -0.04
GBP/USD 1.2623 -0.02
EUR/USD 1.1133 +0.02
AUD/USD 0.6930 +0.20

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
13.30 CAD Current Account -18.1Bn -15.5Bn
13.30 USD Prelim GDP q/q 3.1% 3.2%
13.30 USD Goods Trade Balance -72.0Bn -71.4Bn
13.30 USD Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.2% -0.1%
13.30 USD Unemployment Claims 216K 211K
15.00 USD Pending Home Sales m/m 0.9% 3.8%
17.00 USD Fed Member Clarida Speaks