Newsletter – 29th March 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • The US Dollar was yesterday’s biggest out-performer in FX space. The Dollar was already on the front-foot during the morning session but was given an extra lift following better than expected GDP data, with the US Economy growing2.9% in the final quarter of 2017.
  • Having opened the morning at around 1.4177, GBP/USD closed the day down at 1.4085.
  • Similarly EUR/USD plummeted from 1.2393 to 1.2312 over the day’s trading.
  • There were also a number of other prints out of the US:
    • Goods Trade Balance -75.4Bn (-74.4Bn Exp)
    • Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m 1.1% (0.6% Exp)
    • Pending Home Sales m/m 3.1% (2.1% Exp)
  • According to a Times report yesterday morning the UK is expected to propose a new solution to Irish Officials on the post-Brexit hard border issue and to do so imminently.
  • Speaking yesterday afternoon, US Fed Member Bostic said the Central Bank should continue to hike interest rates back to their long-term ‘neutral rate’. Currently the Fed forecast that rate to be 2.9%, and a level at which it’s neither expansionary nor contractionary for the economy.
Overnight

  • According to Canada’s Chief NAFTA negotiator the three countries are still some distance away from agreement on key aspects of the revised trade deal.
  • Japan Retail Sales y/y 1.6% (1.7% Exp)
  • UK GfK Consumer Confidence -7 (-10 Exp)
  • UK Nationwide HPI m/m -0.2% (0.2% Exp)
  • Swiss Economic Barometer 106.0 (107.3 Exp)
Today
  • Potentially busy day ahead to finish the month.
  • Raft of UK data this morning, with GDP and Current Account data headlining.
  • This afternoon we have plenty more out of North America, with Canadian GDP and US Unemployment Claims the focus of trading.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1412 -0.23
GBP/USD 1.4048 -0.21
EUR/USD 1.2309 +0.01
AUD/USD 0.7674 +0.20

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP Current Account -24.0Bn -22.8Bn
09.30 GBP Final GDP q/q 0.4% 0.4%
09.30 GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 4.8Bn 4.7Bn
13.30 CAD GDP m/m 0.1% 0.1%
13.30 CAD RMPI m/m 2.8% 3.3%
13.30 USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.2% 0.3%
13.30 USD Personal Spending m/m 0.2% 0.2%
13.30 USD Unemployment Claims 230K 229K
14.45 USD Chicago PMI 62.1 61.9
15.00 USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 101.9 102.0