Newsletter – 29th March 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Having briefly rallied in the morning session, it would appear anxiety over the imminent triggering of Article 50 finally got the better of Sterling by the close of play yesterday.
  • The Pound did briefly trade at 1.1600 against the Euro and just shy of 1.2600 against the US Dollar, before the decline set in against all of its major counterparts.
  • The triggering of Article 50 has of course been expected for a good few weeks now so there is no surprise element at play, and so the Sterling sell-off could simply have been profit taking following the Pounds recent recovery.
  • Despite the Sterling weakness seen yesterday afternoon, even the Pound gained over 1.0% on the day versus the South African Rand following reports emanating in the morning that President Jacob Zuma was set to fire finance minister Pravin Gorhan. The Rand had already suffered its worst day since the US elections on Monday.
  • FRENCH ELECTIONS: Latest OpinionWay poll:
    • 1st Round: Le Pen 26.0% (unch); Macron 24.0% (unch); Fillon 20% (unch)
    • 2nd Round: Macron 62% (+1); Le Pen 38% (-1)
  • US Consumer confidence surged to a 16 year high in March according to data released yesterday afternoon. The CB Consumer Confidence Index hit a reading of 125.6against an expected 113.9.

Overnight

  • Scottish Parliament voted 69 to 59 in favour of a second independence referendum. Theresa May has of course already suggested her Government wouldn’t agree to this taking place during Brexit negotiations.
  • Japanese Retail Sales y/y 0.1% (0.7% Exp).
  • Speaking overnight US Fed vice Chair Fischer suggested that two more hikes would be appropriate this year and that the Fed’s current wait-and-see approach was working well.

Today

  • Unless you have been hiding under a rock for the past month or so you should of course be aware that today is the day the UK Government formally notifies the European Union of its intention to withdraw by invoking Article 50. An exact time has yet to be provided.
  • This morning we have only UK Net Lending to Individuals data to contend with at 9.30am.
  • This afternoon US Pending Home Sales will be the only data release of note at 3pm, however there are a number of US Fed speakers chalked up to speak around this figure.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1502 -0.15
GBP/USD 1.2405 -0.37
EUR/USD 1.0783 -0.27
AUD/USD 0.7653 +0.26

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
N/A GBP UK Government Trigger Article 50
09.30 GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 4.9Bn 4.8Bn
09.30 GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 0.5% 0.9%
14.20 USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks
15.00 USD Pending Home Sales m/m 2.3% -2.8%
16.30 USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
17.50 EUR ECB Member Praet Speaks
18.15 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks