Newsletter – 29th June 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Despite a lack of data released yesterday morning the Pound continued to come under selling pressure as Brexit concerns continue to weigh on sterling.
  • GBP/EUR was probing the significant 1.1300 level, whilst GBP/USD tested the 1.3100 handle.
  • Italian Prelim CPI m/m 0.3% (0.2% Exp)
  • US GDP was revised down from 2.2% to 2.0% for the first quarter of 2018.
  • US Unemployment Claims 227K (220K Exp)
  • Speaking yesterday afternoon Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane said his move to vote for a rate hike this month should not be seen as surprising after a decade of ultra-loose monetary policy. Haldane added that he saw mounting pay pressures, and that had the data in May been better he would have voted for an increase then.
Overnight

  • The big move overnight has come from the Euro following news that European leaders had reached agreement on migration. There were real tensions amongst EU nations and leaders on the issue heading into this weeks summit with many believing the unity of the EU and German Chancellor Merkel’s leadership were hanging on the outcome of talks.
  • Following the news the Euro rallied in FX space, and by half a cent against the Pound, pushing the pair to a 3-month low of 1.1245.
  • There was a raft of Japanese data overnight:
    • Tokyo Core CPI y/y 0.7% (0.6% Exp)
    • Unemployment Rate 2.2% (2.5% Exp)
    • Prelim Industrial Production m/m -0.2% (-1.1% Exp)
    • Consumer Confidence 43.7 (43.9 Exp)
  • German Retail Sales m/m -2.1% (-0.5% Exp)
  • French Prelim CPI m/m 0.1% as expected
Today
  • Plenty of data set to be released today.
  • This morning UK Current Account and GDP data will headline at 9.30am, closely followed by Eurozone Inflation at 10.00am.
  • Canadian GDP will be in focus at 1.30pm this afternoon, alongside a number of US figures.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1296 -0.11
GBP/USD 1.3166 +0.69
EUR/USD 1.1654 +0.75
AUD/USD 0.7393 +0.58

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP Current Account -18.0Bn -18.4Bn
09.30 GBP Final GDP q/q 0.1% 0.1%
09.30 GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 5.2Bn 5.7Bn
10.00 EUR Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate y/y 2.0% 1.9%
13.30 CAD GDP m/m 0.0% 0.3%
13.30 CAD RMPI m/m 1.2% 0.7%
13.30 USD Personal Spending m/m 0.4% 0.6%
14.45 USD Chicago PMI 60.1 62.7
15.00 USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 99.1 99.3
15.30 CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey