Newsletter – 29th August 2017

Morning Bulletin

Friday & The Long Weekend

  • The big hitters of the Central Banking World were speaking Friday afternoon at the Jacksonhole Symposium.
  • The key points from ECB President Draghi’s speech included:
    • He stated that the global recovery was firming up
    • A signifcant degree of monetary accomodation was still required as Eurozone Inflation struggles to converge to their 2% target.
    • Perhaps in a shot at President Trump’s protectionist stance, Draghi stated that free trade was needed to boost global growth and to deal with the fallout of ageing societies.
  • To the disappointment of markets, Fed Chair Janet Yellen made no reference to monetary policy in her address.
  • The Euro has found considerable strength since Friday evening with the single currency now trading in the 1.2000 area versus the US Dollar, whilst GBP/EUR has dropped below the 1.0800 handle.
  • German IFO Business Climate 115.9 (115.5 Exp)
  • US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.5% (0.4% Exp)
  • Eurozone M3 Money Supply y/y 4.5% (4.9% Exp)
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow model cuts US Q3 growth to +3.4%, down from +3.8% prior.
  • New York Fed also lower their Q3 US GDP tracker to +1.9%, down from +2.1% prior.
Overnight

  • EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Barnier has voiced his concerns about the slow pace of Brexit talks ahead of the third round, whilst his UK counterpart David Davis said ‘flexibility and imagination’ is required from both side.
  • Japan Household Spending y/y -0.2% (+0.8% Exp)
  • Japan Unemployment Rate 2.8% as expected.
  • Bank of Japan Core CPI y/y +0.4% (+0.2% Exp)
  • German GfK Consumer Climate 10.9 (10.8 Exp)
  • UK Nationwide HPI m/m -0.1% (0.0% Exp)
  • Following reports of fresh provocation from North Korea there is firm risk-off sentiment. According to reports North Korea fired multiple missiles over Northern Japan.
Today
  • No data this morning, all low key UK and Eurozone prints already released.
  • This afternoon US CB Consumer Confidence is our key print at 3pm.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.0763 -0.28
GBP/USD 1.2954 +0.18
EUR/USD 1.2035 +0.46
AUD/USD 0.7942 -0.25

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
13.30 CAD RMPI (Raw Materials) m/m -0.2% -3.7%
14.00 USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 5.6% 5.7%
15.00 USD CB Consumer Confidence 120.9 121.1
16.00 USD US Fed Member Evans Speaks