Newsletter – 28th November 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • There was next to no data of any note released yesterday.
  • Mixed day for the Pound, having rallied to a 7-week high of 1.3383 against the US Dollar by midday, it then fell back to trading around 1.3333 by the close of business and flat for the day.
  • Conversely, against the Euro the Pound had traded as low as 1.1147 in the morning, but rallied to close the day at 1.1201 and up +0.3%.
  • According to Ireland’s Foreign Minister, the leaders of all 27 European Union member states have agreed that Brexit talks can’t advance on to the next phase until reassurances are provided on the issue of the Irish border.
  • In a statement issued by a spokesman for UK PM Theresa May, on the issue of the Irish border the UK Government ‘remain fully committed to avoiding any physical infrastructure and we have had clear discussions about that with the EU’.
  • US New Home Sales 685K (627K Exp).
  • Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity 19.4 (24.0 Exp).
  • Arguably with a nod to December’s upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, US Fed Member Kaplan made a clear call for another rate hike, stating “I believe it will likely be appropriate, in the near future, to take the next step in the process of removing monetary accommodation”. He further added that waiting “too long to see actual evidence of inflation” could leave the Fed behind the curve and having to hike rates more rapidly.
Overnight

  • Speaking overnight US Fed Member Kashkari gave a strong indication that he would not be voting for a rate increase in the December meeting, stating that “because inflation is low, I am seeing no reason to tap the brakes on the economy”.
  • German Import Prices m/m 0.6% (0.4% Exp)
  • All seven of the UK’s major banks passed the Bank of England’s latest stress test, with no banks required to strengthen their balance sheet for the first time. The BOE also believe the banks could stand up and cope with a “disorderly” Brexit.
  • The formation of a new coalition Government in Germany looks to be edging closer as German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said she and her party are prepared to make compromises as the country is in need of a strong coalition.
Today
  • Eurozone M3 Money supply is the key figure this morning.
  • US Consumer Confidence is our key print this afternoon at 3pm, with US Fed Member Powell also due to speak.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1181 -0.11
GBP/USD 1.3316 0.00
EUR/USD 1.1908 +0.09
AUD/USD 0.7599 -0.04

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 5.1% 5.1%
09.00 EUR Private Loans y/y 2.8% 2.7%
12.00 EUR German Gfk Consumer Climate 10.8 10.7
13.30 CAD RMPI m/m -0.1%
13.30 USD Goods Trade Balance -65.0Bn -64.1Bn
13.30 USD Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.5% 0.3%
14.15 USD Fed Member Dudley Speaks
15.00 USD CB Consumer Confidence 123.9 125.9
15.00 USD Fed Chair Designate Powell Speaks
16.30 CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks