Newsletter – 28th June 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Eurozone M3 Money Supply y/y 4.0% (3.8% Exp)
  • UK PM Theresa May has acted quickly to assure UK businesses that the Government is carefully listening to their concerns regarding Brexit and will continue to do so throughout the process. Her comments come following Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt’s condemnation of businesses’ recent warnings on Brexit.
  • UK Retail Sales grew at its fastest pace since September 2017 according to the CBI. The reading of 32 smashed the expected reading of 10 as the higher than average temperatures appear to have had a positive impact on consumers.
  • US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m -0.3% (0.5% Exp)
  • US Goods Trade Balance -64.8Bn (-68.9Bn Exp)
  • US Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.5% (0.2% Exp)
Overnight

  • The US Dollar is firmly on the front-foot this morning following another advance overnight as President Trump looks to have softened some of the China trade measures. In particular the White House has dialled back those harshest proposed measures to curb Chinese investment in US Tech companies.
  • Speaking last night US Fed Member Bullard warned against his colleagues at the Fed going too far too quickly with rate rises, suggesting that could be a big risk to the US economy in years to come.
  • The New Zealand Dollar is on the back-foot in FX space this morning as the Reserve Bank of NZ left rates on hold at1.75% as expected. However the hold was deemed dovish, perhaps summed up by the accompanying rate statement which said the bank  is ‘well positioned to manage change in either direction – up or down – as necessary’.
  • Japan Retail Sales y/y 0.6% (1.3% Exp)
  • German Gfk Consumer Climate 10.7 (10.6 Exp)
  • Spanish Flash CPI y/y 2.3% as expected
Today
  • US GDP data headlines this afternoon at 1.30pm alongside Unemployment Claims.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1317 -0.26
GBP/USD 1.3077 -0.27
EUR/USD 1.1553 +0.01
AUD/USD 0.7338 +0.01

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
10.00 EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m 0.2% 0.3%
TBC EUR EU Economic Summit
13.30 USD Final GDP q/q 2.2% 2.2%
13.30 USD Unemployment Claims 220K 218K
14.30 GBP BOE Member Haldane Speaks
17.00 USD Fed Member Bostic Speaks