Newsletter – 28th December 2018

Morning Bulletin


  • US Consumer Confidence fell sharply in December according the the CB Index. The reading fell to 128.1, which is still high by historical standards, but did drop from a previous 136.4 and an expected 133.7. According to the research Americans are beginning to worry that economic growth could begin to moderate in 2019.
  • According the to the ECB’s latest economic bulletin, the Central Bank believe the Global economy will slow down during 2019 but will stabilise thereafter. However the ECB still see inflationary pressures growing, albeit slowly, as spare capacity diminishes.
  • The stalemate between Democrats and Republicans in the US remains unbroken over President Trump’s demand for tax payer funding for his border wall. The partial Government shutdown now looks set to extend into next year as a result. 
  • Just as the ECB has brought an end to it’s historic bond buying program there were some less than encouraging inflation figures out of Germany’s three most populous regions this morning:
    • North Rhine-Westphalia – Inflation slowed to 1.8% in December from 2.4% last month.
    • Bavaria – Inflation slowed to 2.2% in December, from 2.7% last month.
    • Baden-Wuerttemburg – Inflation fell to 2.0% in December, from 2.7% last month.
  • Japan Tokyo Core CPI y/y 0.9% as expected
  • Japan Prelim Industrial Production m/m -1.1% (-1.7% Exp)
  • Japan Retail Sales y/y 1.4% (2.1% Exp)
  • Spanish Flash CPI y/y 1.2% (1.6% Exp)
  • Very little on the data front today.
  • Economic data releases will start to normalise in terms of frequency as of next Wednesday.


Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1051 -0.09
GBP/USD 1.2640 -0.02
EUR/USD 1.1438 +0.08
AUD/USD 0.7043 +0.23


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
14.45 USD Chicago PMI 61.4 66.4
15.00 USD Pending Home Sales m/m 0.9% -2.6%