Newsletter – 28th December 2018

Morning Bulletin

This Week

  • The partial shutdown of the US Government has now been running for 10 days as Democrats refuse to agree to the $5Billion demanded by President Trump in order to build his US-Mexico border wall. The Democrats are now due to put a two-part package before the house on Thursday in order to get the Government up and running again, however it will not include funding for Trump’s Wall which could see it come unstuck when trying to pass through the republican led Senate.
  • According to ECB Member Lane the balance of risks facing the Eurozone are now shifting to the downside.
  • UK PM Theresa May has once again urged MP’s to back her Brexit Deal. Adding the deal would see the UK to ‘turn a corner’ and allow the Government to focus on domestic problems properly once more.
  • According to the latest IPSOS Mori survey, as reported by the FT, UK business leaders from the top 500 companies fear economic conditions will continue to deteriorate in the UK during 2019. 74% of respondents were pessimistic about the year ahead, whilst an increased amount of business leaders believed the prospect of Brexit to be worse now than they had thought 12 months ago.
  • The Aussie Dollar is on the back-foot this morning following weaker than expected Chinese Manufacturing data. The China Caixin Manufacturing PMI survey dropped to 49.7 in December, down from 50.2 previously. That was the first contraction (<50.0) in 19 months and comes amid the Trade War with the United States.
  • The Pound has started 2019 pretty much were it left 2018, under pressure and on the back-foot against the majority of its currency counterparts. Once again Sterling will be driven by Brexit developments this year. Parliament are expected to have a meaningful vote on the PM’s Brexit deal in the coming weeks.
Today
  • Just the Manufacturing PMI print’s to look out for today, with Eurozone and UK figures this morning and US and Canada later this afternoon.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1101 -0.22
GBP/USD 1.2703 -0.28
EUR/USD 1.1442 -0.02
AUD/USD 0.7015 -0.39

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI 51.4 51.4
09.30 GBP Manufacturing PMI 52.6 53.1
14.30 CAD Manufacturing PMI 54.9
TBC NZD Global Dairy Trade Price Index 1.7%
14.45 USD Final Manufacturing PMI 53.9 53.9