Newsletter – 28th April 2017

Morning Bulletin


  • As expected, the European Central Bank left rates unchanged yesterday while President Mario Draghi reiterated the existing forward guidance.
  • He did admit that downward risk to the Eurozone had diminished and that the European economic picture was looking solid.
  • Draghi told the media in the press conference afterwards that the ECB had not discussed the sequencing of tightened monetary policy. He also said that the removal of the easing bias on interest rates has not been discussed either.
  • GBP/EUR rallied yesterday by 0.79% after opening at 1.1773 and closing 1.1866. GBP/EUR gapped lower earlier in the week after Emmanuel Macron’s victory in the first round of the French election caused the euro to strengthen but the pound is showing resilience.
  • US President Donald Trump yesterday said that a ‘major, major conflict’ with North Korea was possible but that a diplomatic resolution was preferable however he did claim that that route could prove to be ‘very difficult’.
  • Australian President Malcolm Turnbull claimed that China was not putting enough pressure on Pyongyang over the country’s nuclear and missile programme.
  • We saw two pieces of economic data from the US yesterday with core durable goods orders m/m coming in weaker than expected at -0.2% vs 0.4% and unemployment claims also missing expectations with a figure of 257K vs 241K expected.
  • GBP/USD pushed higher to the 1.29 level yesterday before this morning holding its position above the seemingly significant level.
  • Overnight we had household spending y/y from Japan fall short of estimates at -1.3% vs -0.6%.
  • Elsewhere ANZ Business Confidence from New Zealand produced a figure of 11.0 following a figure of 11.3 last time out.
  • GBP/AUD is trading 1.7304 this morning with GBP/NZD trading at 1.18827.
  • We have preliminary GDP q/q from the UK this morning with a figure of 0.4% expected at 9.30am. 
  • From Europe we have CPI flash estimate y/y at 10am before Canadian GDP m/m data at 1.30pm.
  • We also expect the US advance GDP q/q figure to be released at 1.30pm with estimates suggesting a level figure of 1.3%.


Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1880 +0.12
GBP/USD 1.2933 +0.23
EUR/USD 1.0885 +0.14
AUD/USD 0.7471 +0.08


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09:30 GBP Prelim GDP q/q 0.4% 0.6%
10:00 EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.8% 1.5%
10:00 EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.0% 0.7%
13:30 CAD GDP m/m 0.1% 0.6%
13:30 USD Advance GDP q/q 1.3% 2.1%