Newsletter – 28 February 2017

Morning Bulletin


  • Just the two medium impact releases yesterday morning, both out of Europe:
    • Spanish Flash CPI y/y 3.0% (3.3% Exp)
    • Eurozone M3 Money Supply y/y 4.9% as expected.
  • The above data had little impact however, as the main story of the morning session was Sterling weakness, generated by the newspaper report that Theresa May was preparing for the Scottish Government to propose a second referendum to coincide with the triggering of Article 50.
  • Similarly the afternoon session was sparse on the data front, with just the one Key figure and another more medium impact release, both out of the United States:
    • Core Durable Goods Orders m/m -0.2% (0.5% Exp)
    • Pending home Sales m/m -2.8% (1.1% Exp)
  • This US data did however appear to have some impact with the US Dollar weakening across the board in the afternoon session. GBP/USD had traded as low as 1.2383 around 8am yesterday morning, but ended the day around the 1.2450 mark.
  • Speaking yesterday evening US Federal Reserve Member Kaplan again reiterated his view that the Fed should start hiking rates sooner rather than later, suggesting that US consumers could drive economic growth of more than 2% this year.
  • The US Federal Funds rate is currently pricing in a 40% chance of a rate hike in March.

  • New Zealand Trade Balance -285M (-3M Exp).
  • New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence 16.6 (21.7 Previously).
  • French Prelim CPI m/m 0.1% (0.4% Exp).
  • French Prelim GDP q/q 0.4% as expected.


  • Relatively quiet calendar on the whole, particularly this morning.
  • Two key pieces of data out of the United States this afternoon. First up is GDP at 1.30pm, followed by Consumer Confidence at 3pm. Two solid readings here could continue to add fuel to the potential March rate hike flame.


Current at time of distribution

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1734 -0.16
GBP/USD 1.2425 -0.15
EUR/USD 1.0585 -0.01
AUD/USD 0.7676 +0.04


Current at time of distribution
Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
10.00 EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m 0.1% 0.2%
13.30 CAD RMPI m/m 6.5%
13.30 USD Prelim GDP q/q 2.1% 1.9%
13.30 USD Goods Trade Balance -66.0Bn -64.4Bn
14.45 USD Chicago PMI 53.1 50.3
15.00 USD CB Consumer Confidence 111.1 111.8
15.00 USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 10 12