Newsletter – 27th September 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Sterling lost a modest amount of ground on the US dollar yesterday with GBP/USD opening at 1.3177, trading a high of 1.3217, a low of 1.3138 before closing at 1.3164.
  • GBP/EUR opened at 1.1195 and trading high of 1.1233, a low of 1.1179 and closed at 1.1211 representing a 0.14% increase on the day.
  • The US Federal Reserve increased rates to <2.25% as expected and the Fed’s Powell said he sees a bright moment for the US economy with further hikes to follow. In other comments he downplayed the risks of a trade war and said he doesn’t see any upside inflation surprises.
  • The Times were reporting that PM Theresa May is losing cabinet support for a ‘no-deal’ if EU talks fail while Reuters reported on May’s desire for an ‘ambitious’ trade deal with the US following Brexit. Senior ministers are reportedly increasingly worried that the prime minister will force a no-deal Brexit if Europe rejects her plan again next month.
  • President Trump held a press conference yesterday in which he covered many topics.
    • He said the US he has rejected a meeting with Canadian PM Trudeau and that the US and Canada are ‘not getting along’ on NAFTA.
    • He once again said that he not happy with the Fed’s decision to raise rates – a departure from presidential norms governing the independence of the Fed.
    • He also said that his friendship with President Xi Jinping of China may be over and there is no sign of the trade war between the US and China easing. However he claims that the trade war has no impact on the US economy.
Overnight
  • New Zealand kept rates held at 1.75% as expected.
  • GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/JPY are currently trading at 0.7226, 1.9743 and 147.64.
Today
  • Eurozone M3 money supply y/y came in slightly weaker than expected at 3.5% vs 3.8%
  • At 1.30pm we have core durable goods orders m/m and final GDP q/q from the US.
  • At 2.30pm ECB President Dragi is due to speak with Fed Chair Powell due to speak at 9.30pm.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1199 -0.11
GBP/USD 1.3117 -0.35
EUR/USD 1.1713 -0.20
AUD/USD 0.7231 -0.34

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
13:30 USD Core Durable Goods m/m 0.4% 0.1%
13:30 USD Final GDP q/q 4.2% 4.2%
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders m/m 1.9% -1.7%
14:30 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
21:30 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
22:45 CAD BOC Gove Poloz Speaks