Newsletter – 27th November 2018

Morning Bulletin


  • Economic data was very limited yesterday.
  • UK High Street Lending, which looks at the number of new mortgages approved by high street banks, was up 39.7K during October. That was slightly better than the 38.9K expected.
  • One of the key indicators of European business confidence, the German IFO Business Climate reading slipped to 102.0 yesterday morning from a previous 102.9. According to the survey of German businesses sentiment fell as the trade dispute between China and the United States weighed on Germany’s Export sector.
  • Speaking yesterday afternoon ECB President Draghi said the slight slowdown in Eurozone growth was normal and should be temporary. Despite weaker growth, Draghi said there is good reason to expect underlying inflation to gradually rise in the period ahead.
  • Addressing Parliament yesterday afternoon, UK PM Theresa May warned MP’s that there can be no Brexit deal that excludes the backstop arrangement regarding the Irish Border. The PM was once again facing sustained criticism from the commons but continued to staunchly defend her proposed Brexit deal, insisting it delivered on the result of the referendum. MP’s will vote on the deal on the 11th December and it would appear Mrs May has her work cut out to win the votes required with opposition coming from all across the Chamber including her own party.

  • US President Donald Trump decided to wade into the Brexit debate yesterday evening and Theresa May certainly will not have thanked him for his input. Trump suggested the Brexit deal was ‘great’ for the EU, but could harm future UK-US trade deal. No 10 was however quick to respond that it was very clear the UK would be able to sign trade deals post-Brexit.
  • Trump’s comments did see the Pound slump a little in FX markets.
  • President Trump also said yesterday that is was highly unlikely he would stand down on his plans to increase trade tariffs on $200Bn worth of Chinese imports from 10% to 25% due to take effect on the 1st January. His comments come ahead of a planned meeting with President Xi later this week.
  • New Zealand Trade Balance -1295M (-850M Exp)
  • Japan SPPI y/y 1.3% (1.2% Exp)
  • Japan BOJ Core CPI y/y 0.6% (0.5% Exp)
  • Relatively quiet on the data front this morning.
  • US Consumer Confidence the only key print this afternoon at 3pm.


Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1267 -0.34
GBP/USD 1.2753 -0.40
EUR/USD 1.1317 -0.09
AUD/USD 0.7233 +0.19


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
11.00 GBP CBI Realised Sales 10 5
13.30 USD Fed Member Clarida Speaks
14.00 USD HPI m/m 0.4% 0.3%
15.00 USD CB Consumer Confidence 136.2 137.9
19.30 USD Fed Member Bostic Speaks