Morning Bulletin
Yesterday
- Incredibly sparse data calendar yesterday with no data of significance released.
- Sterling was one of the main beneficiaries of the quiet calendar with the pound continuing to be underpinned by recent news, including the agreement upon a Brexit transitional period and the increasing chances of a May rate hike from the Bank of England.
- The Pound rallied to a near 8-week high of 1.4244 against the US Dollar, and rallied to a fresh post-referendum high of 1.8446 against the Aussie Dollar.
- The Pound did enjoy a strong morning against the Euro, with the rate surging to a days high of 1.1471, however that was short lived and the pair closed the day down at 1.1420.
- The UK’s Brexit department suffered a set-back yesterday, as the lead civil servant tasked with finding a solution to the Irish Border issue quit. Simon Case left the role to take up the position of Prince William’s private secretary.
- According to IMF Chief Christina Lagarde the rise of populism and protectionism are creating headwinds that could hamper global growth. Lagarde also suggested the EU should create a ‘rainy-day’ fund to cushion its member states from future economic shocks.
- ECB Member Jens Weidmann said expectations of a rate rise in Mid-2019 were not unrealistic and that policy normalisation should start soon.
- US President Trump’s top trade advisor has said he believes the US ‘might get a really good deal on NAFTA’ following the well publicized and at times controversial renegotiations.
Overnight
- Speaking overnight US Fed Member Mester said that whilst recent trade tensions are a risk, they would not cause her to reassess her optimism around the US economy and that she backs the current path of gradual interest rate hikes.
- Japan SPPI y/y 0.6% (0.7% Exp)
- Japan BOJ Core CPI y/y 0.8% (0.7% Exp)
- German Import Prices m/m -0.6% (-0.3% Exp)
- Spanish Flash CPI y/y 1.2% (1.5% Exp)
Today
- Another relatively sparse data calendar today unfortunately.
- Key print will be at 3pm with US CB Consumer Confidence.
Currency Pair | Interbank Rate | % Change on Day |
GBP/EUR | 1.1387 | -0.38 |
GBP/USD | 1.4194 | -0.23 |
EUR/USD | 1.2463 | +0.16 |
AUD/USD | 0.7729 | -0.21 |
Time (GMT) | Region | Data Release | Forecast | Previous |
09.00 | EUR | Eurozone M3 Money Supply y/y | 4.6% | 4.6% |
09.00 | EUR | Eurozone Private Loans y/y | 3.0% | 2.9% |
09.30 | GBP | FPC Meeting Minutes | ||
15.00 | USD | CB Consumer Confidence | 131.2 | 130.8 |
15.00 | USD | Richmond Manufacturing Index | 23 | 28 |
16.00 | USD | Fed Member Bostic Speaks |