Newsletter – 27th March 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Incredibly sparse data calendar yesterday with no data of significance released.
  • Sterling was one of the main beneficiaries of the quiet calendar with the pound continuing to be underpinned by recent news, including the agreement upon a Brexit transitional period and the increasing chances of a May rate hike from the Bank of England.
  • The Pound rallied to a near 8-week high of 1.4244 against the US Dollar, and rallied to a fresh post-referendum high of 1.8446 against the Aussie Dollar.
  • The Pound did enjoy a strong morning against the Euro, with the rate surging to a days high of 1.1471, however that was short lived and the pair closed the day down at 1.1420.
  • The UK’s Brexit department suffered a set-back yesterday, as the lead civil servant tasked with finding a solution to the Irish Border issue quit. Simon Case left the role to take up the position of Prince William’s private secretary.
  • According to IMF Chief Christina Lagarde the rise of populism and protectionism are creating headwinds that could hamper global growth. Lagarde also suggested the EU should create a ‘rainy-day’ fund to cushion its member states from future economic shocks.
  • ECB Member Jens Weidmann said expectations of a rate rise in Mid-2019 were not unrealistic and that policy normalisation should start soon.
  • US President Trump’s top trade advisor has said he believes the US ‘might get a really good deal on NAFTA’ following the well publicized and at times controversial renegotiations.
Overnight

  • Speaking overnight US Fed Member Mester said that whilst recent trade tensions are a risk, they would not cause her to reassess her optimism around the US economy and that she backs the current path of gradual interest rate hikes.
  • Japan SPPI y/y 0.6% (0.7% Exp)
  • Japan BOJ Core CPI y/y 0.8% (0.7% Exp)
  • German Import Prices m/m -0.6% (-0.3% Exp)
  • Spanish Flash CPI y/y 1.2% (1.5% Exp)
Today
  • Another relatively sparse data calendar today unfortunately.
  • Key print will be at 3pm with US CB Consumer Confidence.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1387 -0.38
GBP/USD 1.4194 -0.23
EUR/USD 1.2463 +0.16
AUD/USD 0.7729 -0.21

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR Eurozone M3 Money Supply y/y 4.6% 4.6%
09.00 EUR Eurozone Private Loans y/y 3.0% 2.9%
09.30 GBP FPC Meeting Minutes
15.00 USD CB Consumer Confidence 131.2 130.8
15.00 USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 23 28
16.00 USD Fed Member Bostic Speaks