Newsletter – 27th June 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Moves in FX space were pretty muted yesterday with a distinct lack of key data set for release.
  • Both GBP/EUR and GBP/USD traded within a tight 30-40 pip range all day long.
  • The Pound was always going to struggle to make headway during yesterday’s trading following comments from incoming Bank of England rate-setter John Haskel. The soon to be member will be replacing the outgoing McCafferty who voted for a rate hike in the June meeting. In stark contrast Haskel’s comments appeared dovish in nature, suggesting he may be more inclined to join the other BOE doves in voted to keep rates on hold in August.
  • UK High Street Lending 39.2K (38.2K Exp)
  • According to Reuters, draft conclusions from this weeks EU Leaders summit show that the EU will call on the UK to provide ‘realistic and workable proposals’ on its future relationship with the EU. They will also leave the door open for the UK Government to change its mind on some of the ‘red lines’ in negotiations.
  • In response to the US steel and aluminium tariffs, Bloomberg news’ sources are reporting that the Canadian Government is looking to introduce quotas and tariffs of their own to avoid being flooded with steel imports from global producers seeking to avoid the US tariffs.
  • In his first speech as the new Vice President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos was upbeat on the Eurozone’s prospects, saying he believed the bloc was on track for solid and broad based growth and was confident inflation will continue to rise. He cited the threat of increased protectionism and rising oil prices as the main downside risks.
  • US CB Consumer Confidence 126.4 (127.6 Exp).
  • US Richmond Manufacturing Index 20 (15 Exp).
Overnight

  • Speaking yesterday evening US Fed Member Bostic warned that escalating trade tensions could shifts the risks to the downside for the US economy and could rule out a fourth rate increase this year should things get worse.
  • New Zealand Trade Balance 294M (100M Exp)
  • New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence -39.0 (-27.2 Previously)
  • UK Nationwide HPI m/m 0.5% (0.3% Exp)
Today
  • Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is due to speak this morning.
  • This afternoon will be dominated by US data releases with Core Durable Goods headlining at 1.30pm.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1334 -0.14
GBP/USD 1.3219 +0.01
EUR/USD 1.1661 +0.13
AUD/USD 0.7383 -0.11

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 3.8% 3.9%
09.30 GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
09.30 GBP BOE Financial Stability Report
13.30 USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.5% 0.9%
13.30 USD Goods Trade Balance -68.9Bn -67.3Bn
13.30 USD Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.2% 0.1%
15.00 USD Pending Home Sales m/m 1.1% -1.3%
16.00 USD Fed Member Quarles Speaks
20.00 CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
22.00 NZD Official Cash Rate 1.75% 1.75%
22.00 NZD RBNZ Rate Statement