Newsletter – 27th July 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • At the risk of sounding like a broken record there was a distinct lack of data once again yesterday.
  • UK GDP came in as expected yesterday morning. The second quarter print showed the economy grew by just 0.3%over the 3 months to June, up slightly from an equally sluggish 0.2% in the first quarter.
  • According to UK Chancellor Hammond this disappointing growth is down to the inflationary hit consumers have faced following the post-referendum slump in the Pound.
  • Sterling had actually made some solid ground in FX space throughout the morning and prior to this GDP print, but remained largely unmoved off the back of the figure.
  • UK BBA Mortgage Approvals 40.2K (39.9K Exp)
  • US New Home Sales 610K (615K Exp)
  • According to ECB member Nowotny the central bank has begun talks about future tightening of policy, adding that reducing the intensity of stimulus would be reasonable.
Overnight

  • The US Dollar is firmly on the back-foot in FX space this morning following yesterday evening’s FOMC rate decision and statement.
  • The FOMC kept rates on hold at <1.25% as expected, however the accompanying statement was adjudged to be ‘dovish’ by markets and traders leading to the decline of the Dollar.
  • Of particular concern was the slight tweak to inflation language, with the statement adding they expect inflation to stay below 2% in the near term.
  • GBP/USD Subsequently hit a 10 month high of 1.3157, whilst EUR/USD hit a fresh 2 and a half year high of 1.1776.
  • Australia Import Prices q/q -0.1% (0.7% Exp)
  • Spanish Unemployment Rate 17.2% (17.8% Exp)
Today
  • Eurozone M3 Money supply is the key print this morning at 9am.
  • This afternoon is dominated by US economic data, with Durable Goods Orders and Unemployment Claims headlining at 1.30pm.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1206 +0.34
GBP/USD 1.3137 +0.15
EUR/USD 1.1719 -0.12
AUD/USD 0.8027 +0.30

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 5.0% 5.0%
11.00 GBP CBI Realised Sales 10 12
13.30 USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.4% 0.3%
13.30 USD Unemployment Claims 240K 233K
13.30 USD Goods Trade Balance -65.0Bn -65.9Bn
13.30 USD Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.3% 0.4%