Morning Bulletin
Yesterday
- At the risk of sounding like a broken record there was a distinct lack of data once again yesterday.
- UK GDP came in as expected yesterday morning. The second quarter print showed the economy grew by just 0.3%over the 3 months to June, up slightly from an equally sluggish 0.2% in the first quarter.
- According to UK Chancellor Hammond this disappointing growth is down to the inflationary hit consumers have faced following the post-referendum slump in the Pound.
- Sterling had actually made some solid ground in FX space throughout the morning and prior to this GDP print, but remained largely unmoved off the back of the figure.
- UK BBA Mortgage Approvals 40.2K (39.9K Exp)
- US New Home Sales 610K (615K Exp)
- According to ECB member Nowotny the central bank has begun talks about future tightening of policy, adding that reducing the intensity of stimulus would be reasonable.
Overnight
- The US Dollar is firmly on the back-foot in FX space this morning following yesterday evening’s FOMC rate decision and statement.
- The FOMC kept rates on hold at <1.25% as expected, however the accompanying statement was adjudged to be ‘dovish’ by markets and traders leading to the decline of the Dollar.
- Of particular concern was the slight tweak to inflation language, with the statement adding they expect inflation to stay below 2% in the near term.
- GBP/USD Subsequently hit a 10 month high of 1.3157, whilst EUR/USD hit a fresh 2 and a half year high of 1.1776.
- Australia Import Prices q/q -0.1% (0.7% Exp)
- Spanish Unemployment Rate 17.2% (17.8% Exp)
Today
- Eurozone M3 Money supply is the key print this morning at 9am.
- This afternoon is dominated by US economic data, with Durable Goods Orders and Unemployment Claims headlining at 1.30pm.
| Currency Pair | Interbank Rate | % Change on Day |
| GBP/EUR | 1.1206 | +0.34 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3137 | +0.15 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1719 | -0.12 |
| AUD/USD | 0.8027 | +0.30 |
| Time (GMT) | Region | Data Release | Forecast | Previous |
| 09.00 | EUR | M3 Money Supply y/y | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| 11.00 | GBP | CBI Realised Sales | 10 | 12 |
| 13.30 | USD | Core Durable Goods Orders m/m | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 13.30 | USD | Unemployment Claims | 240K | 233K |
| 13.30 | USD | Goods Trade Balance | -65.0Bn | -65.9Bn |
| 13.30 | USD | Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m | 0.3% | 0.4% |