Newsletter – 27th February 2019

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Only one place to start yesterday and that was with Theresa May’s address to the commons which appears to have increased the likelihood of a delay to to the UK leaving the European Union. Speaking to MP’s, Mrs May said that if no deal was agreed and that a no-deal exit was rejected, then there could be a short extension to the UK’s exit date.
  • Mrs May said the house would have a meaningful vote on her Brexit deal by the 12th March, and should that deal be voted down then a subsequent vote on leaving with no-deal and extending Article 50 would be held.
  • In the aftermath of her comments Sterling spiked in FX space and continued to strengthen into the close of the day.
  • GBP/USD was up around 1% by 6pm at 1.3270
  • GBP/EUR closed around 1.1650, up some +0.8% on the day and trading at a 21-month high.
  • According to an EU official a short Brexit delay of a couple of months could be relatively simple and considered favourable by the EU commission.
  • Speaking before MP’s on the Treasury Select Committee yesterday morning, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said the bank would provide whatever monetary support it can to the UK economy in the event of a no-deal Brexit. Carney also added that in the event of a no-deal Brexit, he could guarantee the path of UK GDP would be materially lower than their February forecast which assumes a deal and smooth transition.
  • US CB Consumer Confidence 131.4 (124.8 Exp)
  • US Building Permits 1.33M (1.29M Exp)
Overnight

  • Perhaps unsurprisingly one of the most vocal Tory Brexiteers, Jacob Rees-Mogg, has said overnight that he would be prepared to back Theresa May’s Brexit Deal providing the Irish backstop has a time limit. Previously he has said he could not back a deal unless the backstop was scrapped.
  • New Zealand Trade Balance -914M (-300M Exp)
  • UK BRC Shop Price Index y/y +0.7% (+0.4% previous)
  • Eurozone Private Loans y/y 3.2% (3.4% Exp)
Today

  • Very quiet on the data front this morning.
  • US and Canadian data will be in focus this afternoon with Canadian Inflation headlining at 1.30pm.
  • UK MP’s will be voting on a number of amendments to the Governments negotiating strategy in the commons later today. Whilst they don’t amount to a vote on Theresa May’s deal it could dictate her next move.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1656 +0.16
GBP/USD 1.3278 +0.20
EUR/USD 1.1392 +0.04
AUD/USD 0.7165 -0.23

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
10.00 EUR ECB Member Weidmann Speaks
13.30 CAD CPI m/m 0.2% -0.1%
13.30 USD Goods Trade Balance -74.1Bn -71.6Bn
13.30 USD Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.4% 0.3%
15.00 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
15.00 USD Factory Orders m/m 1.5% -0.6%
15.00 USD Pending Home Sales m/m 0.7% -2.2%