Newsletter – 27th February 2018

Morning Bulletin


  • There was next to no economic data to digest yesterday.
  • The UK High Street Lending print showed UK Mortgage approvals were at a 3-month high in January, increasing to40,117 from 36,085 in December.
  • US New Home Sales 593K (655K Exp).
  • UK Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn set out Labour’s position on Brexit yesterday morning, suggesting Britain should enter a new ‘bespoke’ customs union with the EU to avoid tariffs and a hard border with Ireland. Whilst the move has been welcomed by many business leaders, it could well be met with the same old EU response that the UK can’t ‘have it’s cake and eat it’.
  • ECB President Mario Draghi spoke before the European Parliament yesterday afternoon, some of the key points included:
    • The Euro area is expanding robustly, with growth currently stronger than expected.
    • Inflation has yet to show signs of a sustained upward adjustment.
    • In the Q&A part Draghi said a possible extension to the QE program had not been discussed.
  • According to local German press, Chancellor Merkel’s Christian Democrat party have voted overwhelmingly in favour of forming a grand coalition with the social democrats.

  • Speaking yesterday evening US Fed Member Quarles suggested the US Economy could break out into a faster pace of growth without necessarily triggering higher levels of inflation. He added economic growth could be led by higher productivity or labour force participation, which would impart less upward pressure on prices.
  • New Zealand Trade Balance -566M (-2710M Exp)
  • Bank of Japan Core CPI y/y 0.8% (0.6% Exp)
  • Spanish Flash CPI y/y 1.1% (0.9% Exp)
  • Eurozone Money Supply is our only print of note this morning, due at 9am.
  • Raft of US economic data from 1.30pm with Core Durable Goods Orders headlining.
  • We are also due to hear from Fed Chair Powell who will be testifying before the US House Financial Services Committee.


Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1333 -0.04
GBP/USD 1.3981 +0.11
EUR/USD 1.2336 +0.15
AUD/USD 0.7843 -0.11


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 4.6% 4.6%
10.00 EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
13.30 USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.4% 0.7%
13.30 USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
13.30 USD Goods Trade Balance -72.3Bn -72.3Bn
14.00 USD HPI m/m 0.4% 0.4%
15.00 USD CB Consumer Confidence 126.2 125.4
15.00 USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 15 14