Newsletter – 27th April 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • The European Central Bank were firmly in focus yesterday afternoon. As widely expected the ECB kept their benchmark interest rate on hold at 0.00% and the accompanying statement was unchanged from March: ‘Rates to remain at present levels for extended period, asset purchases to run at €30Bn a month to the end of September 2018 or beyond if necessary’.
  • The following press conference with ECB President Draghi is usually where the action really takes place in FX markets, and following a brief strengthening of The Euro, the single currency then weakened off and endured a poor afternoon.
  • GBP/EUR pushed back up to the significant 1.1500 handle, having plummeted back down through it following BOE Governor Carney’s comments last week.
  • EUR/USD traded down to it’s lowest levels since early January, hitting a day’s low of 1.2098.
  • Sources reporting later in the day suggested the ECB policymakers expect a decision on future monetary policy to be announced at the June or July meeting, but that could be delayed to September.
  • Data out of the US was mixed yesterday afternoon:
    • Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.0% (0.5% Exp)
    • Unemployment Claims 209K (230K Exp)
    • Goods Trade Balance -68.0Bn (-74.8Bn Exp)
  • The EU’s Chief Brexit negotiator Barnier once again stated yesterday that the UK could not have frictionless trade outside of the customs union and single market. Adding that Brexit was a lose-lose situation and warned the UK could not receive a special deal on financial services.
  • According to representatives from both the US and UK Government, US President Trump will visit the UK to hold bilateral talks with PM May on the 13th July.
Overnight

  • The Bank of Japan kept their benchmark interest rate on hold at -0.10% overnight as expected. Monetary policy was held steady but they did remove the time frame for achieving their 2% inflation target.
  • New Zealand Trade Balance -86M (+270M Exp)
  • UK Nationwide HPI m/m 0.2% as expected
  • Spanish Flash CPI y/y 1.1% (1.2% Exp)
  • Spanish Flash GDP q/q 0.7% as expected
Today
  • UK GDP headlines this morning at 9.30am. Perhaps a stronger than expected print could get a May rate hike firmly back on the table.
  • US GDP is our key print this afternoon, due at 1.30pm.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1498 +0.03
GBP/USD 1.3884 -0.20
EUR/USD 1.2073 -0.24
AUD/USD 0.7539 -0.19

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 CHF SNB Chair Jordan Speaks
09.30 GBP Prelim GDP q/q 0.3% 0.4%
13.30 USD Advance GDP q/q 2.0% 2.9%
13.30 USD Employment Cost Index q/q 0.7% 0.6%
15.00 GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
15.00 USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 98.0 97.8