Newsletter – 27th April 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Such has been the pattern of the week so far there was very little key data released yesterday.
  • The Aussie and Kiwi Dollars were the most notable movers in FX space, as once again the antipodean currencies floundered, clocking up losses of around 1% versus both Sterling and the US Dollar.
  • GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD both hit fresh 2017 highs of 1.8683 and 1.7218 respectively.
  • The Canadian Dollar also continued to weaken during yesterday’s trading, still weighed down by the timber tariffs proposed by President Trump and the threat of the US withdrawing from NAFTA (Trade agreement).
  • The only key data released yesterday was in fact out of Canada and it did disappoint:
    • Retail Sales m/m -0.6% (0.0% Exp)
  • UK ELECTIONS: Latest Ipsos MORI survey has the Tories on 49% versus Labour on 26%; that is the largest Conservative lead recorded since 2008.
  • Turkish Central Bank kept interest rates on hold at 8.00%.
Overnight

  • Bank of Japan kept Policy Rate at -0.10% overnight. The BOJ did upgrade their assessment of the economy stating it was turning towards moderate expansion, however inflation forecasts were cut.
  • Overnight President Trump unveiled his big tax plans, however they failed to overwhelm with most key elements having already been reported in the media all week. They included:
    • 15% Business Tax Rate (Currently 35%).
    • 3 income Tax Brackets of 35%/25%/10% down from current 7 brackets.
    • One time repatriation tax – allowing companies to move money back to US from abroad.
  • Spanish Flash CPI y/y 2.6% (2.5% Exp)
  • Spanish Unemployment Rate 18.8% (18.6% Exp)
Today

  • No data of any note due for release this morning.
  • All eyes this afternoon will be on the ECB, and whilst the minimum bid rate is expected to remain on hold at 0.00%, it is the press conference at 1.30pm that will garner attention.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1823 +0.40
GBP/USD 1.2898 +0.40
EUR/USD 1.0906 +0.03
AUD/USD 0.7481 +0.13

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
10.10 AUD RBA Governor Lowe Speaks
12.45 EUR ECB Minimum Bid Rate 0.00% 0.00%
13.30 EUR ECB Press Conference
13.30 USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.4% 0.5%
13.30 USD Unemployment Claims 241K 244K
15.00 USD Pending Home Sales m/m -0.6% 5.5%