Newsletter – 26th March 2018

Morning Bulletin


  • The EU’s 27 remaining leaders formally agreed to the 21-month Brexit transitional agreement Friday morning. They also adopted negotiating guidelines allowing talks to advance to the final and arguably most difficult phase, the future UK-EU relationship.
  • According to Bank of England Member Gertjan Vlieghe interest rates will probably need to rise once or twice a year over the next few years. These comments are likely to cement those views that a rate rise will happen at the Central Bank’s meeting in May.
  • The UK’s trade chief Liam Fox said the UK would not rule out joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) when it formally exits the European Union.
  • Canadian Economic data was in focus Friday afternoon, with a raft of inflation readings set for release along with Retail Sales data. The headline figure was the CPI m/m print which rose more than expected during February, with inflation up +0.6%. a rise of +0.4% was forecast.
  • The Core Retail Sales print was in-line with expectations at 0.9% for January.
  • US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 1.2% (0.5% Exp)
  • US New Home Sales 618K (621K Exp)
Over The Weekend

  • ECB Member Hansson said in an interview Friday evening that the ECB was on track to raise interest rates by the middle of 2019; the first hike since the financial crisis.
  • New Zealand Trade Balance 217M (-100M Exp)
  • US President Trump has temporarily made 6 nations exempt from steel tariffs. The 6 include the European Union, Canada, Mexico, Argentina, South Korea and Brazil. They will be exempt from the tariffs until the 1st May whilst discussions continue.
  • Quiet day in prospect with no economic data set for release.


Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1457 +0.15
GBP/USD 1.4182 +0.33
EUR/USD 1.2381 +0.23
AUD/USD 0.7735 +0.41


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP High Street Lending 39.2K 40.1K
10.30 EUR ECB Member Weidmann Speaks
17.30 USD Fed Member Dudley Speaks
21.30 USD Fed Member Mester Speaks -0.4Bn -11.6Bn