Newsletter – 26th June 2017

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • Friday’s trading kicked off with a raft of Eurozone Manufacturing and Services PMI prints. As always these include individual prints for Germany and France, however it is the overall Eurozone print that we focus on below:
    • Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI 57.3 (56.9 Exp)
    • Eurozone Flash Services PMI 54.7 (56.2 Exp)
  • Canadian CPI m/m was the headline figure Friday afternoon and it fell short of expectations at 0.1% (0.2% had been expected). The Canadian Dollar slipped in FX space following this print.
  • Sterling had a pretty mixed day’s trading on Friday. The Pound slowly made gains by mid afternoon as we learned of Theresa May’s proposal to the EU on guaranteeing rights for EU citizens currently living in the UK.
  • The Pound traded as high as 1.2743 and 1.1410 versus the US Dollar and Euro Respectively, however those gains were short lived as Sterling slumped somewhat into the evening, closing the day down around 1.2720 and 1.1360 respectively.
  • This slump potentially due to comments from the likes of EU Council President Tusk, who said that the UK PM’s offer on EU citizens was below expectations.
  • Mixed economic data out of the US Friday afternoon:
    • Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.1 (53.1 Exp)
    • Flash Services PMI 53.0 (53.9 Exp)
    • New Home Sales 610K (599K Exp)
  • There were conflicting opinions from the two US Fed members on the wires Friday afternoon:
    • St Louis Fed President Bullard suggested there was no reason for the Fed to increase interest rates further in coming meetings due to tepid inflation data.
    • In stark contrast Cleveland Fed President Mester said the weakness in current inflation data has not perturbed her and that the Fed should stay on a course of gradual tightening, increasing rates and reducing their balance sheet.  
Over The Weekend
  • Speaking over the weekend, ECB member Weidmann stated that should the Eurozone economy continue to show solid economic and price development then it could be time to look at a path for exiting current monetary policies.
  • Japan SPPI y/y 0.7% as expected.
Today
  • Not a great deal of data due for release today.
  • German IFO Business Climate will be the key print this morning due at 9am.
  • This afternoon we have one high impact release in the form of US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m at 1.30pm. Having declined half a percent previously, a rise of 0.4% is forecast this month.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1381 +0.20
GBP/USD 1.2748 +0.24
EUR/USD 1.1201 +0.08
AUD/USD 0.7587 +0.25

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR German IFO Business Climate 114.7 114.6
09.30 GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals 40.3K 40.8K
11.00 EUR German Buba Monthly Report
13.30 USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.4% -0.5%
18.30 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks