Newsletter – 26th January 2018

Morning Bulletin 

Yesterday

  • The ECB left its policy on euro stimulus unchanged yesterday saying it would continue to buy €30bn of Eurozone bonds per month until September or beyond if necessary. It also stated that its key interest rates would not rise for an extended period of time.
  • ECB President Mario Draghi expressed concern of the impact of US trade policy on the value of the euro but was upbeat about the currency bloc’s recovery.
  • The euro strengthened during the afternoon with GBP/EUR falling from 1.1490 mark to trade a low of 1.1382 on the day and closed at 1.1405.
  • EUR/USD pushed higher during the ECB conference to break the 1.25 level for the first time since since December 2014. However the market subsequently pulled back and actually closed lower on the day at 1.2393 after opening at 1.2407.
  • US President Donald Trump said in an interview with CNBC that he wants to see a strong dollar and that the dollar will get ‘stronger and stronger’ under his leadership.
  • Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has said recently that a weak dollar was good for US business but Trump said that Mnuchin was misinterpreted.
  • Canadian core retail sales m/m came in stronger than expected at 1.6% vs 0.8% expected and US unemployment claims came in better than expected at 233K vs 239K.

Overnight

  • Japanese national core CPY y/y came in as expected at 0.9%.
  • GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/JPY are currently trading 1.7609, 1.9323 and 155.12, respectively.

Today

  • This morning we saw Eurozone M3 money supply y/y come in at 4.6% vs 4.9% expected.
  • We have UK preliminary GDP q/q at 9.30am which is expected to come in at 0.4%.
  • This afternoon we expect data inflation data from Canada and the growth and durable goods data from the US.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1425 +0.18
GBP/USD 1.4240 +0.72
EUR/USD 1.2460 +0.54
AUD/USD 0.8081 +0.74

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09:30 GBP Preliminary GDP q/q 0.4% 0.4%
13:30 CAD CPI m/m -0.3% 0.3%
13:30 CAD Common CPI y/y 1.5%
13:30 CAD Median CPI y/y 1.9%
13:30 CAD Trimmed CPI y/y 1.8%
13:30 USD Advance GDP q/q 3.0% 3.2%
13:30 USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.5% -0.1%
13:30 USD Advance GDP Price Index q/q 2.3% 2.1%
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.9% 1.3%