Newsletter – 26th February 2018

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • Eurozone inflation was in-line with expectations, with the year-on-year CPI print at 1.3% in January. That was down from the 1.4% in December, as inflation remains well below the ECB’s 2% target.
  • The Swedish Krona weakened aggressively in FX space Friday morning following dovish minutes from the Riksbank. The Swedish Central Bank expressed concerns over the development of inflation and emphasised they would need to pay particular attention to downside risks when judging the timing and speed of potential rate rises.
  • GBP/SEK had rallied by 1.0% at one stage trading a day’s high of 11.447. Whilst EUR/SEK rallied 0.60% to trade at a day’s high of 10.066.
  • Inflation data in Canada showed prices soared far more than expected in January, with a CPI print of 0.7% smashing the expected 0.4% rise. This print assisted the Canadian Dollar in reclaiming further ground that had been lost Thursday following the shocking Retail Sales print.
  • Speaking Friday evening, EU Council President Donald Tusk said he was glad to see the UK moving towards a more detailed position on Brexit, adding previous plans were based on pure illusion. He reiterated there can be no cherry picking.
  • Despite Brexit woes once again rearing their head the Pound fared relatively well on the whole last week, closing up around 0.6% against the Euro at 1.1357.
Over The Weekend

  • According to a newspaper interview Bank of England member Ramsden said the central bank may need to raise interest rates sooner than he expected if wage growth continues to pick up in early 2018. Ramsden was just one of two policymakers who voted against Novembers interest rate rise.
  • In a monetary policy report to congress, The US Federal Reserve noted that the US economy could be operating at or slightly over full employment, that financial markets were high and that overall economic growth continues to gather steam. The reported added that conditions remained appropriate for further interest rate increases, although inflation pressures remain muted for now.
Today
  • Real lack of economic data set for release today.
  • ECB President Draghi is due to testify before the European Parliament from 2pm.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1399 +0.33
GBP/USD 1.4042 +0.52
EUR/USD 1.2318 +0.21
AUD/USD 0.7879 +0.55

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP High Street Lending 37.2K 36.1K
14.00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
15.00 USD New Home Sales 655K 625K
18.00 GBP BOE Member Cunliffe Speaks
21.45 NZD Trade Balance -2710M 640M