Newsletter – 25th September 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Speaking Monday morning UK Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab struck an optimistic tone, suggesting he was confident the UK would make progress in Brexit talks and that a deal with the EU would eventually be clinched. These comments come following some less than positive words for PM Theresa May last week, when she said the two sides have reached an impasse.
  • The Pound did manage to stabilise and make modest gains on the day yesterday.
  • GBP/EUR did briefly trade as high as 1.1190 before closing the day around 1.1155.
  • Similarly GBP/USD peaked at 1.3166 before falling to close down at 1.3120.
  • German businesses were more confident than expected according to Septembers Ifo print. The reading of 103.7 was slightly better than the 103.2 expected and according to Ifo chief Clemens Fuest ‘the German economy remains robust, despite growing uncertainty’.
  • UK Manufacturers reported a fall in their order books according to the CBI’s September survey. The factory orders reading dropped to -1 from +7 in August, with export orders falling to its lowest level since October 2017 as Brexit edges ever closer.
  • Canada Wholesale Sales m/m 1.5% (0.4% Exp)
  • Speaking yesterday afternoon ECB President Mario Draghi said he expects to see a vigorous pick-up in underlying inflation in the Eurozone. Following Draghi’s address to the European Parliament the Euro rallied in FX space as his comments were viewed as hawkish.
Overnight

  • UK PM Theresa May will meet with US President Trump on Wednesday to discuss Brexit and the possibilities of a bilateral trade deal with the US after the UK leaves the European Union. The meeting will occur on the sidelines of the United Nations meeting in New York.
  • Staying with the PM, Theresa May has backed her home secretary’s post-Brexit immigration plans which will offer visas based on a tiered system of skills and wealth and will include no preferential treatment for EU citizens. The PM will announce the plan at the Conservative party conference next week.
  • German Wholesale Price Index 0.3% (0.2% Exp)
Today
  • Another quiet day on the data front.
  • US Consumer Confidence being the only key print at 3pm.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1157 -0.05
GBP/USD 1.3129 +0.10
EUR/USD 1.1767 +0.17
AUD/USD 0.7249 -0.04

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.40 GBP BOE Member Vlieghe Speaks
14.00 USD HPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
15.00 USD CB Consumer Confidence 132.2 133.4
15.00 USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 22 24