Newsletter – 25th July 2018

Morning Bulletin


  • GBP/EUR rallied yesterday appreciating in value by 0.41% after opening at 1.1203 and closing at 1.1249.
  • Sterling also gained on the US dollar with cable opening at 1.3095 and closing at 1.3144.
  • US president Donald Trump tweeted ahead of meeting EC president Juncker on Wednesday, stating that “tariffs are the greatest” and that he will continue to use them unless other nations agree on a “fair trade deal”.
  • EUR/USD came off by a modest amount on Tuesday with the market opening at 1.1691, trading a high of 1.1717, a low of 1.1655 and closing at 1.1683.
  • ING downgraded GBP forecasts versus EUR and USD with UK politics to blame until October at least. A more sustained recovery is forecast for for 2019 however.
  • Australian CPI q/q came in at 0.4% vs 0.5% expected and trimmed mean CPI q/q came in as expected at 0.5%.
  • GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/JPY markets are currently trading at 1.7751, 1.9331 and 146.30, respectively.
  • With another quiet day on the data front forecast, all eyes turn to Trump’s trade discussions with the EU’s Jean-Claude Juncker. The US government has applied tariffs of 25% of imports of steel from the EU and 10% on aluminium, saying that US national security is threatened. The EU retaliated with levies on American exports worth more than $3bn.
  • With the US considering limiting imports of European-made cars, the US-EU discussions are vital if both parties want to avoid an all-out trade war.
  • This morning German ifo business climate data came in at 101.7 vs 101.6 expected and M3 money supply y/y came in at 4.4% vs 4.0% expected.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1250 +0.01
GBP/USD 1.3150 +0.04
EUR/USD 1.1688 +0.05
AUD/USD 0.7408 -0.14


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -2.6M 5.8M