Newsletter – 25th July 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • With a lack of key data due for release, yesterday proved fairly quiet in FX space with very limited movement amongst the major currency pairs.
  • Trading kicked off with a number of German and French PMI readings which ultimately culminated in the overall Eurozone prints:
    • Flash Manufacturing PMI 56.8 (57.3 Exp)
    • Flash Services PMI 55.4 (55.5 Exp)
  • Despite falling slightly short of expectations these readings still comfortably represent industry expansion (>50.0).
  • In contrast to the slightly disappointing Eurozone print, US Flash Manufacturing PMI hit a 4 month high of 53.2 (52.3 Exp), up from a previous 52.0.
  • The US Dollar did find some further respite following this print with the Dollar Index nudging slightly further away from the 13 month low it recently hit.
  • Some of the day’s other data releases included:
    • Canadian Wholesale Sales m/m 0.9% (0.5% Exp)
    • US Existing Home Sales 5.52M (5.59M Exp)
Overnight

  • Markets were largely unmoved following the release of the minutes from the Bank of Japan’s most recent monetary policy meeting. Most members agreed to keep current policy unchanged as the 2% inflation target was still so distant.
  • German Import Prices m/m -1.1% (-0.7% Exp)
  • The Euro has found some support this morning following comments from ECB Exec member Yves Mersch. Speaking in Singapore Mersch said that the recovery in the Eurozone was very promising with risks in the short term tilted to the upside, however he still believes a substantial degree of monetary accommodation is required as underlying inflation remains low.
  • According to the Swiss National Bank President Jordan the Franc is still significantly overvalued.
Today
  • Not a great deal of data set for release today but there a couple of important readings.
  • This morning the German IFO Business Climate will headline with an expected reading of 114.9.
  • Later this afternoon attention will then turn to US CB Consumer Confidence due at 3pm.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1178 -0.12
GBP/USD 1.3024 -0.03
EUR/USD 1.1651 +0.11
AUD/USD 0.7935 +0.16

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR German IFO Business Climate 114.9 115.1
11.00 GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations 12 16
14.00 EUR Belgian NBB Business Climate -1.9 -2.0
15.00 USD CB Consumer Confidence 116.5 118.9
15.00 USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 7 7
18.00 GBP MPC Member Haldane Speaks
21.15 NZD RBNZ Assist Gov McDermott Speaks
23.45 NZD Trade Balance 147M 103M