Newsletter – 25th April 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Yesterday was all about the bounce back in the Euro following the result of Sunday’s 1st round of French Presidential Elections. The single currency has been weighed down for some months now with fears of other EU members following the UK’s lead in exiting the union.
  • The result of the 1st round vote certainly appears to have calmed those concerns, with Macron still looking heavy favourite to win the Presidency in the 2nd Round of votes which take place on the 7th May.
  • The Euro rallied aggressively from the open of trading during Asian hours, making solid gains of over 1% against its major counterparts before stabilising during the afternoons trading.
  • GBP/EUR closed the day down 1.33% at 1.1782, having hit a low of 1.1748.
  • Similarly EUR/USD closed the day up 1.12% at 1.0845, having traded as high as 1.0877.
  • More notable data releases yesterday:
    • German IFO Business Climate 112.9 (112.4 Exp)
    • UK CBI Industrial Order Expectations 4 (9 Exp)
    • Canadian Wholesale Sales m/m -0.2% (2.1% Exp)
  • A Guardian/ICM poll showed the Conservatives have maintained a 21 point lead over the Labour party since last Tuesday’s poll, with UK however down 7%.
Overnight

  • Japanese SPPI y/y 0.8% (0.7% Exp)
  • FRENCH ELECTIONS – Latest Polls
    • Elabe Poll : Macron 64% v Le Pen 36%
    • Ifop Poll : Macron 60% v Le Pen 40%
  • Marine Le Pen has announced she is to temporarily stand down as leader of the Front National in order to focus on the 2nd round of Presidential election.
Today

  • Just the one figure of interest this morning in the form of UK Public Sector Net Borrowing at 9.30am.
  • This afternoon attention turns to the US with key Consumer Confidence data at 3pm alongside New Home Sales figure.
  • Worth noting that today is a public holiday (Anzac Day) in New Zealand and Australia.
  • It is also an Italian bank holiday, as they celebrate Liberation Day.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1762 -0.08
GBP/USD 1.2805 +0.10
EUR/USD 1.0888 +0.21
AUD/USD 0.7542 -0.34

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP UK Public Sector Net Borrowing 2.6Bn 1.1Bn
14.00 EUR Belgian Business Climate -1.4 -1.6
14.00 USD HPI m/m 0.1% 0.0%
15.00 USD CB Consumer Confidence 123.7 125.6
15.00 USD New Home Sales 590K 592K
15.00 USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 18 22