Newsletter – 24th October 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • We saw sterling post gains against both the euro and the US dollar yesterday.
    • GBP/EUR opened at 1.1303 and traded a high of 1.1364 before closing at 1.1318.
    • GBP/USD opened at 1.2960, traded a high of 1.3044 before closing at 1.2983.
  • A government watchdog has warned that Britain will ‘pay the price’ of a no-deal Brexit due to new border controls not being ready in time. The finding of the National Audit Office were;
    • UK exporters will have not have enough time to prepare for new border rules.
    • Criminal gangs could exploit any border weaknesses and delays were likely at crossings.
  • The government said it is confident of striking a ‘good’ deal with the EU for as ‘frictionless’ trade as possible (BBC).
  • There were reports yesterday that the EU are willing to offer PM May a UK-wide customs union as a way around the Irish backstop issue and sterling made advances off the back of this however this did stall somewhat when it also was reported that it would be negotiated outside of the Withdrawal Agreement as a separate treaty. (PoundSterlingLive).
Overnight
  • GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/JPY are trading 1.8259, 1.9764 and 145.42, respectively.
Today
  • This morning we have broadly weaker data than expected from Europe.
    • Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI came in weaker than expected at 52.1 vs 53.0.
    • Eurozone flash services PMI came in at 53.3 vs 54.5.
  • At 3pm we are expecting the Bank of Canada to announce the overnight rate along with a rate statement and the monetary policy report. The press conference will follow at 4.15.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1328 +0.09
GBP/USD 1.2933 -0.38
EUR/USD 1.1416 -0.46
AUD/USD 0.7080 -0.05

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
15:00 CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report
15:00 CAD BOC Rate Statement
15:00 CAD Overnight Rate 1.75% 1.50%
16:15 CAD BOC Press Conference