Newsletter – 24th June 2019

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • No real surprise that the US Dollar was the weakest performer in FX space on Friday as tensions between the US and Iran ramped up following Monday’s actions. President Trump, tweeting Friday afternoon, revealed that the US were ‘cocked and loaded’ to retaliate on three different sites in Iran Thursday night but stopped short of executing the order due to potential casualties.
  • Having been trading around the Mid 1.2600’s in the morning, Sterling rallied to a 9-day high of 1.2739 by the close of play against the US Dollar.
  • The Euro in fact rallied to a 3-month high against the US Dollar, pushing from 1.1300 up into the 1.1360-1.1370 region Friday evening.
  • Despite another disappointing Manufacturing print, the overall Eurozone PMI readings in June hit a 7-month high. The manufacturing sector remained in contraction with a reading of 47.8, however the Services sector more than made up for that with a reading of 53.4. The survey did however reveal that optimism amongst purchasing managers dropped to its lowest level since 2014.
  • UK Public Sector Net Borrowing 4.5Bn (3.3Bn Exp)
  • Speaking Friday afternoon the EU’s Donald Tusk said that whilst a new British Prime Minister might spice up or bring excitement to the Brexit process it would not alter the European Union’s stance.
  • Canadian Core Retail Sales m/m 0.1% (0.6% Exp)
  • US Flash Manufacturing PMI 50.1 (50.5 Exp)
  • Two US Central bankers called for rate cuts whilst speaking on Friday. Federal Reserve members Kashkari and Bullard both cited concerns around inflation as the main reason for cutting rates, with Bullard in fact voting against his colleagues at this months meeting. Bullard said he believed a rate cut was warranted as inflation is weak and there is growing uncertainty about the economic outlook.
Overnight

  • The US is preparing to impose additional economic sanctions on Iran in retaliation for Iran shooting down a US drone last week. President Trump has however said he is prepared to negotiate with Iran with no ‘preconditions’ provided Tehran agrees to not acquiring nuclear weapons. The President did hint that military action remained on the table.
  • The US Dollar has remained under pressure this morning with tensions high.
  • Front runner to become the next PM, Boris Johnson has come under fire over the weekend following reports of an altercation between himself and his partner at his London home with his neighbours contacting the police.
  • Sticking with Boris, and his colleague and international trade secretary Liam Fox has rubbished Mr Johnson’s claim that the UK could use an existing trade agreement to avoid tariffs with the EU in the event on a no-deal Brexit.
Today
  • Typically quiet Monday on the data calendar.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1183 +0.12
GBP/USD 1.2728 -0.10
EUR/USD 1.1379 +0.10
AUD/USD 0.6944 +0.30

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR German IFO business climate 97.4 97.9
14.00 CNY CB Leading Index m/m 0.8%
14.00 EUR Belgian NBB Business Climate -2.2 -3.6
11.45 NZD Trade Balance 200M 433M