Newsletter – 24th August 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI 54.6 (55.1 Exp)
  • Eurozone Flash Services PMI 54.4 as expected
  • The UK Government published papers yesterday that revealed what people and businesses would need to do in order to protect themselves in the event of a no-deal Brexit. The paper revealed British firms trading with the EU would face a tangle of red tape, possible delays at the border and cashflow disruption if the UK fails to reach a deal with the EU by next March.
  • At first glance the UK CBI realised Sales figure released yesterday morning looked really positive with the reading of 29 smashing the expected 13 as sales picked up in August, boosted by spending on food and drink as Brits enjoyed the summer heatwave. However delving a little further and the report showed retailers were downbeat about the future, with employment expectations at its lowest level since 2009.
  • The minutes from the ECB’s July monetary policy meeting revealed the central bank believe protectionism and the threat of a global trade war are the biggest threats to the Eurozone economy at present, however all members agreed that growth remained firmly on track and as such no tweak to policy was required.
  • Never one to doubt his own self-worth, US President Trump yesterday claimed that the markets would crash and everybody would be poor should he be impeached following the serious controversy sorrounding his former campaign manager Manafort and attorney Cohen.
  • There were a number of more low key US data releases yesterday afternoon which included:
    • Unemployment Claims 210K (215K Exp)
    • Flash Manufacturing PMI 54.5 (55.1 Exp)
    • Flash Services PMI 55.2 (55.9 Exp)
    • New Home Sales 627K (643K Exp)
Overnight

  • A fresh round of trade tariffs have been implemented by the United States today on $16 Billion worth of Chinese Imports, however undeterred Beijing have placed there own raft of tariffs on $16 Billion worth of US imports.
  • These tariffs have kicked in as US and Chinese negotiators failed to make any progress following two days of talks this week.
  • Speaking overnight US Fed Member Robert Kaplan said the Central Bank would continue to make decisions ‘without regard to political considerations or political influence’.
  • New Zealand Trade Balance -143M (-400M Exp)
  • Japan National Core CPI y/y 0.8% (0.9% Exp)
  • German Final GDP q/q 0.5% as expected
Today
  • Such has been the story of the week we have yet another quiet day in prospect where economic data is concerned.
  • The only figure of note is US core durable goods orders at 1.30pm.
  • Look out for comments from Fed Chair Powell and BOE Member Haldane who speak this afternoon.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1099 +0.03
GBP/USD 1.2828 +0.16
EUR/USD 1.1555 +0.16
AUD/USD 0.7273 +0.39

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP High Street Lending 40.6K 40.5K
13.30 USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.5% 0.2%
13.55 GBP BOE Member Haldane Speaks
14.00 EUR Belgian NBB Business Climate -0.5 -1.3
15.00 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks