Newsletter – 24 January 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • The Pound’s recent revival showed no signs of abating yesterday as Sterling made solid gains ranging from 0.3% to just shy of 1.0% against its major currency counterparts. GBP/USD in fact traded up to a one month high of 1.2495, whilst GBP/EUR hit a two week high of 1.1636.
  • This Sterling strength is still largely underpinned by UK PM Theresa May’s rousing speech last week in which Mrs May of course laid out her wish list for the UK following Brexit, and also on news that she would be one of the first world leaders to meet President Trump.
  • Perhaps unsurprisingly the US Dollar suffered some losses on the day following President Trump’s inauguration on Friday. Trump’s protectionist and nationalistic rhetoric has rattled markets, and word today that he has already placed an executive order to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) has just underpinned those fears of an inward looking US.
  • Wasting no time at all President Trump has also announced his intention to renegotiate the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) very soon.
  • Data releases of note:
    • Canadian Wholesale Sales m/m 0.2% (0.3% Exp)
    • Chinese CB Leading Index m/m 0.8% (1.3% Previously)
    • Eurozone Consumer Confidence -5 as expected

 

Overnight

  • Japanese Manufacturing PMI 52.8 (52.3 Exp)
  • In response to Trump’s plans to withdraw from TPP, overnight Australia has said they will push to maintain TPP without the US, however Japan have said they are not considering a deal without US involvement; and so the Trump based carnage begins.
Today

  • Most of today’s action is likely to be put in motion this morning:
    •  Kicking off at 9am with the overall Eurozone Manufacturing and Services PMI readings for January.
    • Focus will quickly shift to Brexit once more as at 9.30am we are due to hear the UK Supreme Court’s ruling on whether the UK Government must give MP’s a vote on the triggering of Article 50 and begin the official divorce proceedings from the EU. Apparently expecting to lose the case, Theresa May has already been given four draft versions of the new Brexit Law, one of which will ultimately be put before parliament.

 

MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRS
Current at time of distribution

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1611 -0.29
GBP/USD 1.2476 -0.47
EUR/USD 1.0744 -0.16
AUD/USD 0.7558 -0.31

 

ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Current at time of distribution

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI 54.8 54.9
09.00 EUR Eurozone Flash Services PMI 53.9 53.7
09.30 GBP EU Membership Court Ruling
09.30 GBP Public Net Sector Borrowing 6.7Bn 12.2Bn
14.45 USD Flash Manufacturing PMI 54.6 54.3
15.00 USD Existing Home Sales 5.54M 5.61M
15.30 AUD CB Leading Index m/m -0.4%
16.00 EUR ECB’s Praet Speaks