Newsletter – 23rd October 2017

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • The UK ran it’s smallest deficit during the month of September in a decade, it was revealed Friday. The UK Public Sector Net Borrowing figure of £5.9Bn was down almost 11% on the same month last year, and beat the expected borrowing figure of £6.5Bn. That was the third straight month that Government borrowing figures have beaten analysts forecasts and could be very welcome news for Chancellor Hammond ahead of next month’s budget.
  • EU Council President Tusk said EU Leaders have given the go-ahead to start preparing internally for the second phase of Brexit negotiations, that despite suggestions the UK is still not quite there yet for talks to advance to this second stage.
  • UK Brexit Secretary David Davis meanwhile suggested the UK would be ready should a no deal scenario occur, but added that was certainly not what they wanted.
  • Eurozone Current Account 33.3Bn (26.2Bn Exp).
  • Friday afternoon’s key data came out of Canada and it was rather disappointing ahead of next week’s Canadian Central Bank meeting. CPI in September fell short of expectations at0.2% (0.3% Exp), whilst Core Retail Sales in August declined by -0.7% against an expected rise of +0.3%. The Canadian Dollar was hammered in FX space following this data, having been trading in the Mid-1.6400’s GBP/CAD closed the week up in the Mid-1.6600’s.
  • US Existing Home Sales 5.39M (5.30M Exp).
Over The Weekend

  • The Spanish Government has outlined plans to remove Catalonia’s leaders and take control of the region, by enforcing Article 155 of the Spanish Constitution. The Article allows the Government to impose direct rule of any one of Spain’s semi-autonomous regions during a crisis.
  • Japan’s PM Shinzo Abe is one step closer to becoming the country’s longest serving premier following his Liberal Democrat Party-led coalition securing 312 of the 465 available seats over the weekend.
  • The Japanese Yen is on the back-foot in FX space following Abe’s victory, as his well known ‘Abenomics’ approach to Japan’s economic recovery involves measures which weaken the Yen.
  • Speaking yesterday morning UK Trade Minister Liam Fox warned his party were not bluffing when it comes to a Brexit no deal scenario, insisting a final settlement figure for Brexit, the divorce bill, can only be reached when a final Brexit agreement/deal has been struck.
Today
  • Typical Monday unfortunately with little data set for release.
  • Canadian Wholesale Sales at 1.30pm is arguably the highest impact print.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1217 +0.31
GBP/USD 1.3189 +0.43
EUR/USD 1.1755 -0.41
AUD/USD 0.7818 -0.30

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
11.00 EUR German Buba Monthly Report
11.00 GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations 9 7
13.30 CAD Wholesale Sales m/m 1.1% 1.5%
15.00 EUR Consumer Confidence -1 -1
15.30 AUD CB Leading Index m/m 0.1%