Newsletter – 23rd November 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • There was a distinct lack of economic data released during yesterday’s trading.
  • There was however plenty of movement in Sterling currency pairs as more Brexit related news impacted the Pound.
  • Sterling spiked in FX markets shortly after 10am as news broke that the European Commission and the UK’s Brexit negotiators had agreed on the deceleration for the future ties. Initially sourced from an EU official, the news was confirmed shortly after in a tweet by EU Council President Donald Tusk, his tweet said:
    • ‘I have just sent to EU27 a draft Political Declaration on the Future Relationship between EU and UK. The Commission President has informed me that it has been agreed at negotiators’ level and agreed in principle at political level, subject to the endorsement of the Leaders.’
  • Following the news GBP/EUR spiked to a day’s high of 1.1304, before settling to trade around the 1.1290 mark for the remainder of the day. The pair had been hovering around 1.1200 prior to the news.
  • Likewise GBP/USD had been languishing below the 1.2800 handle in early trading, but spiked to a day’s high of 1.2926 following the news. Trading above 1.2900 was however very brief as the pair settled into trading around the 1.2875 mark for most of the day.
  • Speaking yesterday afternoon UK PM Theresa May hailed the draft agreement on the UK’s ties with the EU post-Brexit as ‘right for the whole UK’ and insisted a deal was within touching distance. The PM’s withdrawal agreement was of course slated by just about all corners of the commons last week, so it remains to be seen whether the text on future relations will be enough to win over enough MP’s to win a vote in Parliament.
  • The Final hurdle as far as the European Union is concerned will come on Sunday as Leaders of the 27 member states will vote on the draft text, and of course all 27 must agree for the motion to pass.
Overnight

  • Speaking yesterday evening, Bank of England member Michael Saunders suggested interest rates would probably need to rise faster than currently expected if the UK secures a smooth exit from the European Union as the deal would potentially boost the economy.
  • Speaking to BBC Radio, Ex-Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab said he believes the commons will inevitably vote down Theresa May’s Brexit deal.
  • German Final GDP q/q -0.2% as expected
  • French Flash Manufacturing PMI 50.7 (51.3 Exp)
  • French Flash Services PMI 55.0 (54.9 Exp)
Today
  • Eurozone Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI readings in focus this morning.
  • This afternoon there are a raft of Canadian economic figures set for release, however Inflation and Retail Sales are the key figures due at 1.30pm.
  • Please note it is a Bank Holiday in Japan today.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1286 -0.03
GBP/USD 1.2838 -0.29
EUR/USD 1.1374 -0.22
AUD/USD 0.7236 -0.23

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.0 52.0
09.00 EUR Flash Services PMI 53.6 53.7
13.30 CAD CPI m/m 0.1% -0.4%
13.30 CAD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.3% -0.4%
14.00 EUR Belgian NBB Business Climate -1.8 -1.1
14.45 USD Flash Manufacturing PMI 55.8 55.7
14.45 USD Flash Services PMI 55.0 54.8