Newsletter – 23rd July 2018

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • The US Dollar was Friday’s worst performer following comments from US President Donald Trump. Trump blasted China and the European Union for what he perceives as currency and interest rate manipulation. The President said the EU and China had kept interest rates lower whilst the US has been raising rates, and as a result the US Dollar has been getting stronger and stronger taking away a competitive edge for the US. His final comments, clearly directed at the US Federal Reserve, suggest he does not agree with the Fed continuing on their gradual rate hike path.
  • Ahead of Trump’s comments GBP/USD was trading around 1.3035 before jumping to 1.3080, and eventually trading a day’s high of 1.3140.
  • Similarly EUR/USD shifted aggressively from 1.1647 to 1.1715 immediately following Trump’s comments, before trading to a day’s high of 1.1738.
  • Trump was done with putting the world to right’s just there however, as the President said earlier in the day that he was prepared to slap tariffs on all $505 billion of Chinese goods imported into the US, as the trade-war continues to escalate.
  • Some of Friday’s key economic data included:
    • UK Public Sector Net Borrowing 4.5Bn (3.6Bn Exp)
    • Eurozone Current Account 22.4Bn (27.2Bn Exp)
    • Canada CPI m/m 0.1% as expected
    • Canada Core Retail Sales m/m 1.4% (0.6% Exp)
  • According to the Irish Foreign Minister Coveney the UK’s Brexit white paper has received a lukewarm reception in Brussels, but added a good number of elements within the paper would open the way for constructive discussions.
Over The Weekend

  • The new UK Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab struck a defiant tone over the weekend suggesting the UK could refuse to pay the so called ‘Divorce Bill’ if the EU fails to agree a new trade deal. Mr Raab was also optimistic that a deal could get done by October but said it’s up to the EU to match the UK’s level of ambition, energy and pragmatism in negotiations.
  • Staying on Brexit, the Government will be launching a charm offensive this week with senior cabinet ministers travelling to various parts of Europe in order to sell Theresa May’s chequers agreement.
  • US President Donald Trumps approval rating rose to 45% in the latest WSJ/NBC poll. That’s the highest rating during his presidency.
Today
  • Typically quiet Monday in prospect with little data of any significance to be released.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1206 +0.05
GBP/USD 1.3153 +0.20
EUR/USD 1.1732 +0.12
AUD/USD 0.7417 +0.02

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
11.00 EUR German Buba Monthly Report
13.30 CAD Wholesale Sales m/m 0.6% 0.1%
15.00 EUR Consumer Confidence -1 -1
15.00 USD Existing Home Sales 5.46M 5.43M
15.30 AUD CB Leading Index m/m 0.1%
18.00 GBP BOE Member Broadbent Speaks