Newsletter – 23rd April 2018

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • According to EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Barnier the UK and EU still have some 25% of work remaining to formally complete a pact covering the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, crucially including the management of the Irish border which could still yet scupper the whole deal.
  • In contrast to his boss Governor Carney, speaking Friday morning BOE member Michael Saunders was firmly sticking to his guns and argued that further interest rates would need to be gradual but that did not mean their couldn’t be more than one a year or that they could raise faster than markets expect.
  • The only key economic data Friday was out of Canada, and the weaker than expected Inflation and Retail Sales prints saw the Canadian Dollar sold off in FX space. The March CPI m/m print was 0.3%, that was short of the 0.4% expected. Whilst Core Retail Sales were flat at 0.0% in February, 0.4% growth had been expected.
  • ECB President Mario Draghi was speaking Friday afternoon, some of his key comments included:
    • The Euro area economy has continued to expand robustly, with growth broad-based across countries and sectors.
    • Draghi said despite the ECB’s confidence in the inflationary outlook, uncertainties remained and as such patience, persistence and prudence was warranted with regards to monetary policy.
Over The Weekend

  • Japan Flash Manufacturing PMI 53.3 (53.4 Exp)
  • There have been positive comments from both Canada and Mexico over the weekend with regards to the NAFTA agreement. Canada’s Foreign Minister Freeland said ‘good progress’ had been made whilst Mexican President Nieto said he was optimistic on the successful conclusion of renegotiations that would benefit all partners.
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel has stressed the importance of free trade ahead of her visit to the United States this week. Speaking yesterday Merkel welcomed an agreement in principle between the European Union and Mexico on a free trade deal.
  • Speaking Saturday Bank of Canada Poloz said that he wasn’t too concerned about inflation temporarily rising above the 2 percent target this year, and that a shift above that wouldn’t be sufficient to warrant a rate increase.
Today
  • Relatively quiet on the data front today.
  • Eurozone Flash PMI readings arguably the highest impact at 9am.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1407 +0.18
GBP/USD 1.3994 -0.05
EUR/USD 1.2267 -0.15
AUD/USD 0.7657 -0.15

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI 56.6 56.6
09.00 EUR Eurozone Flash Services PMI 54.8 54.9
11.00 EUR German Buba Monthly Report
13.30 CAD Wholesale Sales m/m 0.3% 0.1%
14.45 USD Flash Manufacturing PMI 55.2 55.6
14.45 USD Flash Services PMI 54.3 54.0
15.00 USD Existing Home Sales 5.55M 5.54M